California's 48th congressional district, an open seat following Republican Darrell Issa's retirement announcement, features a top-two primary matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond heading into the November general election. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's partisan voting index slightly toward Democrats, with registration edges favoring the party by about four points in a San Diego and Riverside County area that has trended more competitive in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting structural advantages and the absence of an incumbent. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 86% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in similarly situated California open seats and limited public polling showing Democratic strength in the general election environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$13,014 Vol.
$13,014 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
87%
Parti républicain
14%
$13,014 Vol.
$13,014 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$6,418 Vol.
87%
Parti républicain
$6,596 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 48th congressional district, an open seat following Republican Darrell Issa's retirement announcement, features a top-two primary matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond heading into the November general election. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's partisan voting index slightly toward Democrats, with registration edges favoring the party by about four points in a San Diego and Riverside County area that has trended more competitive in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting structural advantages and the absence of an incumbent. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 86% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in similarly situated California open seats and limited public polling showing Democratic strength in the general election environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$13,014Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 48th congressional district, an open seat following Republican Darrell Issa's retirement announcement, features a top-two primary matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond heading into the November general election. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's partisan voting index slightly toward Democrats, with registration edges favoring the party by about four points in a San Diego and Riverside County area that has trended more competitive in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting structural advantages and the absence of an incumbent. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 86% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in similarly situated California open seats and limited public polling showing Democratic strength in the general election environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,014Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 48th congressional district, an open seat following Republican Darrell Issa's retirement announcement, features a top-two primary matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond heading into the November general election. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's partisan voting index slightly toward Democrats, with registration edges favoring the party by about four points in a San Diego and Riverside County area that has trended more competitive in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting structural advantages and the absence of an incumbent. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 86% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in similarly situated California open seats and limited public polling showing Democratic strength in the general election environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes