Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding lead in New York's 11th Congressional District House race, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for the Republican Party victory. Recent Emerson College polling from late October shows her ahead 53%-38% over Democratic challenger Tony Herbert, amplified by the district's rightward shift following 2022 redistricting that strengthened its Republican lean in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. Voter priorities on crime, border security, and economic issues align with GOP messaging amid national House control battleground dynamics. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 general election, her incumbency advantage and consistent polling trends solidify the market positioning, though turnout in this battleground district remains a key variable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-11
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-11
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
81%
Parti démocrate
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
81%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding lead in New York's 11th Congressional District House race, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for the Republican Party victory. Recent Emerson College polling from late October shows her ahead 53%-38% over Democratic challenger Tony Herbert, amplified by the district's rightward shift following 2022 redistricting that strengthened its Republican lean in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. Voter priorities on crime, border security, and economic issues align with GOP messaging amid national House control battleground dynamics. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 general election, her incumbency advantage and consistent polling trends solidify the market positioning, though turnout in this battleground district remains a key variable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding lead in New York's 11th Congressional District House race, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for the Republican Party victory. Recent Emerson College polling from late October shows her ahead 53%-38% over Democratic challenger Tony Herbert, amplified by the district's rightward shift following 2022 redistricting that strengthened its Republican lean in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. Voter priorities on crime, border security, and economic issues align with GOP messaging amid national House control battleground dynamics. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 general election, her incumbency advantage and consistent polling trends solidify the market positioning, though turnout in this battleground district remains a key variable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding lead in New York's 11th Congressional District House race, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for the Republican Party victory. Recent Emerson College polling from late October shows her ahead 53%-38% over Democratic challenger Tony Herbert, amplified by the district's rightward shift following 2022 redistricting that strengthened its Republican lean in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. Voter priorities on crime, border security, and economic issues align with GOP messaging amid national House control battleground dynamics. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 general election, her incumbency advantage and consistent polling trends solidify the market positioning, though turnout in this battleground district remains a key variable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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