In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02
Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02
$16,218 Vol.
$16,218 Vol.
Parti républicain
92%
Parti démocrate
7%
$16,218 Vol.
$16,218 Vol.
Parti républicain
92%
Parti démocrate
7%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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