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Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02

Market icon
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02

$16,218 Vol.

Polymarket

$16,218 Vol.

Parti républicain

$0 Vol.

92%

Parti démocrate

$16,218 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,218
Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.

In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti républicain » à 92%, suivi de « Parti démocrate » à 7%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 92¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 92% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02 » a généré $16.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02 » est « Parti républicain » à 92%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 92% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti démocrate » à 7%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-02 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.