Alabama's 1st Congressional District (AL-01), rated R+15 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican House election winner on November 5, reflecting consistent GOP margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, including Barry Moore's 2022 victory before his switch to AL-02 amid redistricting. GOP nominee Dane Scarborough secured the nomination after winning the April 16 runoff primary against K.C. McAlpin, while Democrat Elizabeth Anderson advanced unopposed; no competitive polling or fundraising shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge district fundamentals. Realistic upset scenarios include a major Republican scandal, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national wave dynamics, though historical base rates for deep-red districts favor stability through election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAL-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AL-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
94%
Parti démocrate
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
$4,925 Vol.
94%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 1st Congressional District (AL-01), rated R+15 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican House election winner on November 5, reflecting consistent GOP margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, including Barry Moore's 2022 victory before his switch to AL-02 amid redistricting. GOP nominee Dane Scarborough secured the nomination after winning the April 16 runoff primary against K.C. McAlpin, while Democrat Elizabeth Anderson advanced unopposed; no competitive polling or fundraising shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge district fundamentals. Realistic upset scenarios include a major Republican scandal, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national wave dynamics, though historical base rates for deep-red districts favor stability through election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ET
Volume
$4,925Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 1st Congressional District (AL-01), rated R+15 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican House election winner on November 5, reflecting consistent GOP margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, including Barry Moore's 2022 victory before his switch to AL-02 amid redistricting. GOP nominee Dane Scarborough secured the nomination after winning the April 16 runoff primary against K.C. McAlpin, while Democrat Elizabeth Anderson advanced unopposed; no competitive polling or fundraising shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge district fundamentals. Realistic upset scenarios include a major Republican scandal, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national wave dynamics, though historical base rates for deep-red districts favor stability through election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,925Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's 1st Congressional District (AL-01), rated R+15 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican House election winner on November 5, reflecting consistent GOP margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, including Barry Moore's 2022 victory before his switch to AL-02 amid redistricting. GOP nominee Dane Scarborough secured the nomination after winning the April 16 runoff primary against K.C. McAlpin, while Democrat Elizabeth Anderson advanced unopposed; no competitive polling or fundraising shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge district fundamentals. Realistic upset scenarios include a major Republican scandal, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national wave dynamics, though historical base rates for deep-red districts favor stability through election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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