Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan's commanding position in the D+11 Massachusetts 3rd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 91% implied probability for the Democratic Party, reflecting her 97.5% landslide in the 2024 general election—run unopposed after no Republican appeared on the primary ballot—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the district's partisan lean persists despite a rightward swing from 2020-2024 driven by Hispanic voter shifts toward Trump. No polls exist yet, with Democratic primary challenger Gaige Clark and Republican Gary Grossi trailing in fundraising; independent Kevin Ades enters general. Scenarios to upend this include a high-profile GOP recruit post-June filing deadline, Trahan primary upset on September 1, personal scandal, or national midterm wave favoring Republicans.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
91%
Parti républicain
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
91%
Parti républicain
$1,086 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan's commanding position in the D+11 Massachusetts 3rd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 91% implied probability for the Democratic Party, reflecting her 97.5% landslide in the 2024 general election—run unopposed after no Republican appeared on the primary ballot—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the district's partisan lean persists despite a rightward swing from 2020-2024 driven by Hispanic voter shifts toward Trump. No polls exist yet, with Democratic primary challenger Gaige Clark and Republican Gary Grossi trailing in fundraising; independent Kevin Ades enters general. Scenarios to upend this include a high-profile GOP recruit post-June filing deadline, Trahan primary upset on September 1, personal scandal, or national midterm wave favoring Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$1,086Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan's commanding position in the D+11 Massachusetts 3rd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 91% implied probability for the Democratic Party, reflecting her 97.5% landslide in the 2024 general election—run unopposed after no Republican appeared on the primary ballot—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the district's partisan lean persists despite a rightward swing from 2020-2024 driven by Hispanic voter shifts toward Trump. No polls exist yet, with Democratic primary challenger Gaige Clark and Republican Gary Grossi trailing in fundraising; independent Kevin Ades enters general. Scenarios to upend this include a high-profile GOP recruit post-June filing deadline, Trahan primary upset on September 1, personal scandal, or national midterm wave favoring Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,086Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan's commanding position in the D+11 Massachusetts 3rd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 91% implied probability for the Democratic Party, reflecting her 97.5% landslide in the 2024 general election—run unopposed after no Republican appeared on the primary ballot—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the district's partisan lean persists despite a rightward swing from 2020-2024 driven by Hispanic voter shifts toward Trump. No polls exist yet, with Democratic primary challenger Gaige Clark and Republican Gary Grossi trailing in fundraising; independent Kevin Ades enters general. Scenarios to upend this include a high-profile GOP recruit post-June filing deadline, Trahan primary upset on September 1, personal scandal, or national midterm wave favoring Republicans.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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