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Élections·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15

Market icon
Élections·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15

$11,649 Vol.

Polymarket

$11,649 Vol.

Parti démocrate

$7,267 Vol.

94%

Parti républicain

$4,383 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15, a deep-blue House district in New York's South Bronx with a partisan lean of D+37, sees trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability, driven by incumbent Ritchie Torres' commanding incumbency advantage and overwhelming support among the heavily Latino electorate. Torres cruised through the June Democratic primary and recent internal polling shows him leading GOP challenger Rebeca Ponce de Leon by 60+ points, reflecting historical margins like his 73% 2022 win. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with early voting underway smoothly. While scandals, legal challenges, or unprecedented GOP turnout surges could theoretically narrow the gap, structural district demographics and Torres' clean record make a Republican upset highly improbable ahead of the November 5 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,649
Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15, a deep-blue House district in New York's South Bronx with a partisan lean of D+37, sees trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability, driven by incumbent Ritchie Torres' commanding incumbency advantage and overwhelming support among the heavily Latino electorate. Torres cruised through the June Democratic primary and recent internal polling shows him leading GOP challenger Rebeca Ponce de Leon by 60+ points, reflecting historical margins like his 73% 2022 win. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with early voting underway smoothly. While scandals, legal challenges, or unprecedented GOP turnout surges could theoretically narrow the gap, structural district demographics and Torres' clean record make a Republican upset highly improbable ahead of the November 5 general election.

NY-15, a deep-blue House district in New York's South Bronx with a partisan lean of D+37, sees trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability, driven by incumbent Ritchie Torres' commanding incumbency advantage and overwhelming support among the heavily Latino electorate. Torres cruised through the June Democratic primary and recent internal polling shows him leading GOP challenger Rebeca Ponce de Leon by 60+ points, reflecting historical margins like his 73% 2022 win. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with early voting underway smoothly. While scandals, legal challenges, or unprecedented GOP turnout surges could theoretically narrow the gap, structural district demographics and Torres' clean record make a Republican upset highly improbable ahead of the November 5 general election.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti démocrate » à 94%, suivi de « Parti républicain » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 94¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15 » a généré $11.6K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15 » est « Parti démocrate » à 94%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti républicain » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.