Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, a solidly blue seat with a partisan lean of D+27 per Cook PVI ratings, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Moore cruised through her August primary unopposed effectively, facing Republican Oliver Krawczyk, who advanced but lacks competitive fundraising or statewide name recognition. Historical election results show Moore winning by 40+ point margins, with no recent polling or developments—such as scandals, endorsements, or legal challenges—altering this dynamic amid ongoing early voting. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in Milwaukee, or court rulings on ballot access, though these remain low-probability given the district's entrenched demographics and incumbency advantage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWI-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
WI-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
93%
Parti républicain
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
93%
Parti républicain
$8,641 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, a solidly blue seat with a partisan lean of D+27 per Cook PVI ratings, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Moore cruised through her August primary unopposed effectively, facing Republican Oliver Krawczyk, who advanced but lacks competitive fundraising or statewide name recognition. Historical election results show Moore winning by 40+ point margins, with no recent polling or developments—such as scandals, endorsements, or legal challenges—altering this dynamic amid ongoing early voting. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in Milwaukee, or court rulings on ballot access, though these remain low-probability given the district's entrenched demographics and incumbency advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$8,641Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, a solidly blue seat with a partisan lean of D+27 per Cook PVI ratings, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Moore cruised through her August primary unopposed effectively, facing Republican Oliver Krawczyk, who advanced but lacks competitive fundraising or statewide name recognition. Historical election results show Moore winning by 40+ point margins, with no recent polling or developments—such as scandals, endorsements, or legal challenges—altering this dynamic amid ongoing early voting. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in Milwaukee, or court rulings on ballot access, though these remain low-probability given the district's entrenched demographics and incumbency advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,641Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, a solidly blue seat with a partisan lean of D+27 per Cook PVI ratings, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Moore cruised through her August primary unopposed effectively, facing Republican Oliver Krawczyk, who advanced but lacks competitive fundraising or statewide name recognition. Historical election results show Moore winning by 40+ point margins, with no recent polling or developments—such as scandals, endorsements, or legal challenges—altering this dynamic amid ongoing early voting. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in Milwaukee, or court rulings on ballot access, though these remain low-probability given the district's entrenched demographics and incumbency advantage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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