Long-serving Democratic incumbent Jim Himes' re-election bid in Connecticut's safely Democratic 4th District drives trader consensus to 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting his dominant 61% victory in 2024, $2.2 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, and consistent large-margin wins since 2008. The district earns Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underscoring structural advantages in this affluent southwestern Connecticut area spanning Stamford and Norwalk. A fragmented Republican primary pitting Michael Goldstein against Daniel Miressi, plus independents Damon Cerreta and Joseph Perez-Caputo, offers no credible threat. Primaries on August 11 precede the November 3 general election, but odds could shift via Himes scandal, health issues, retirement announcement, or an overwhelming national GOP midterm wave.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCT-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CT-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$17,535 Vol.
$17,535 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
5%
$17,535 Vol.
$17,535 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$11,083 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$6,453 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Democratic incumbent Jim Himes' re-election bid in Connecticut's safely Democratic 4th District drives trader consensus to 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting his dominant 61% victory in 2024, $2.2 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, and consistent large-margin wins since 2008. The district earns Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underscoring structural advantages in this affluent southwestern Connecticut area spanning Stamford and Norwalk. A fragmented Republican primary pitting Michael Goldstein against Daniel Miressi, plus independents Damon Cerreta and Joseph Perez-Caputo, offers no credible threat. Primaries on August 11 precede the November 3 general election, but odds could shift via Himes scandal, health issues, retirement announcement, or an overwhelming national GOP midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$17,535Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Democratic incumbent Jim Himes' re-election bid in Connecticut's safely Democratic 4th District drives trader consensus to 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting his dominant 61% victory in 2024, $2.2 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, and consistent large-margin wins since 2008. The district earns Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underscoring structural advantages in this affluent southwestern Connecticut area spanning Stamford and Norwalk. A fragmented Republican primary pitting Michael Goldstein against Daniel Miressi, plus independents Damon Cerreta and Joseph Perez-Caputo, offers no credible threat. Primaries on August 11 precede the November 3 general election, but odds could shift via Himes scandal, health issues, retirement announcement, or an overwhelming national GOP midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,535Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Democratic incumbent Jim Himes' re-election bid in Connecticut's safely Democratic 4th District drives trader consensus to 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting his dominant 61% victory in 2024, $2.2 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, and consistent large-margin wins since 2008. The district earns Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underscoring structural advantages in this affluent southwestern Connecticut area spanning Stamford and Norwalk. A fragmented Republican primary pitting Michael Goldstein against Daniel Miressi, plus independents Damon Cerreta and Joseph Perez-Caputo, offers no credible threat. Primaries on August 11 precede the November 3 general election, but odds could shift via Himes scandal, health issues, retirement announcement, or an overwhelming national GOP midterm wave.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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