Incumbent Republican María Elvira Salazar maintains a lead in trader consensus for Florida’s 27th congressional district amid a tightening race against Democrat Eliott Rodriguez. Salazar benefits from name recognition, a substantial fundraising edge, and the district’s partisan lean, though internal and sponsored polls from late August and mid-September showed the candidates statistically tied or within a point. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating to Lean Republican in late September after earlier movement from Solid or Likely Republican status, citing Hispanic voter backlash against Trump administration immigration enforcement. Salazar’s mid-September campaign ad distancing herself from aggressive ICE actions highlighted this tension, while Rodriguez emphasizes cost-of-living concerns and immigration reform with a citizenship pathway. Early voting begins later this month ahead of the November 3 general election.