Incumbent Jim Himes maintains a commanding lead in the Connecticut 4th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and his 61% victory in 2024. Himes, first elected in 2008, benefits from substantial fundraising—over $1.3 million raised this cycle—broad name recognition, and an uncontested Democratic primary. Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, who won his August 2026 primary but previously lost to Himes, has raised under $50,000 and lacks comparable institutional support. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCT-04 House Election Winner
CT-04 House Election Winner
$48,385 Vol.
$48,385 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jim Himes (D)
98%
Michael Goldstein (R)
1%
$48,385 Vol.
$48,385 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jim Himes (D)
$22,193 Vol.
98%
Michael Goldstein (R)
$26,193 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Himes maintains a commanding lead in the Connecticut 4th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and his 61% victory in 2024. Himes, first elected in 2008, benefits from substantial fundraising—over $1.3 million raised this cycle—broad name recognition, and an uncontested Democratic primary. Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, who won his August 2026 primary but previously lost to Himes, has raised under $50,000 and lacks comparable institutional support. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$48,385End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Himes maintains a commanding lead in the Connecticut 4th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and his 61% victory in 2024. Himes, first elected in 2008, benefits from substantial fundraising—over $1.3 million raised this cycle—broad name recognition, and an uncontested Democratic primary. Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, who won his August 2026 primary but previously lost to Himes, has raised under $50,000 and lacks comparable institutional support. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,385End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Jim Himes maintains a commanding lead in the Connecticut 4th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and his 61% victory in 2024. Himes, first elected in 2008, benefits from substantial fundraising—over $1.3 million raised this cycle—broad name recognition, and an uncontested Democratic primary. Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, who won his August 2026 primary but previously lost to Himes, has raised under $50,000 and lacks comparable institutional support. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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