The open nature of Texas's 22nd congressional district following incumbent Troy Nehls's retirement has not altered its established Republican advantage, reflected in the market's 92.5% consensus for the Republican nominee. Trever Nehls secured the GOP primary nomination by a wide margin in March 2026, preserving family and party continuity in a Houston-area district with an R+11 partisan voting index. Democratic nominee Marquette Greene-Scott faces structural barriers typical of such seats, where recent statewide and presidential results have consistently favored Republicans. Trader pricing aligns with historical patterns for comparable Texas districts. Potential shifts could still arise from unexpected national political developments, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout differentials before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-22 House Election Winner
TX-22 House Election Winner
$26,302 Vol.
$26,302 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$26,302 Vol.
$26,302 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$16,713 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$9,589 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open nature of Texas's 22nd congressional district following incumbent Troy Nehls's retirement has not altered its established Republican advantage, reflected in the market's 92.5% consensus for the Republican nominee. Trever Nehls secured the GOP primary nomination by a wide margin in March 2026, preserving family and party continuity in a Houston-area district with an R+11 partisan voting index. Democratic nominee Marquette Greene-Scott faces structural barriers typical of such seats, where recent statewide and presidential results have consistently favored Republicans. Trader pricing aligns with historical patterns for comparable Texas districts. Potential shifts could still arise from unexpected national political developments, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout differentials before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$26,302End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open nature of Texas's 22nd congressional district following incumbent Troy Nehls's retirement has not altered its established Republican advantage, reflected in the market's 92.5% consensus for the Republican nominee. Trever Nehls secured the GOP primary nomination by a wide margin in March 2026, preserving family and party continuity in a Houston-area district with an R+11 partisan voting index. Democratic nominee Marquette Greene-Scott faces structural barriers typical of such seats, where recent statewide and presidential results have consistently favored Republicans. Trader pricing aligns with historical patterns for comparable Texas districts. Potential shifts could still arise from unexpected national political developments, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout differentials before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,302End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open nature of Texas's 22nd congressional district following incumbent Troy Nehls's retirement has not altered its established Republican advantage, reflected in the market's 92.5% consensus for the Republican nominee. Trever Nehls secured the GOP primary nomination by a wide margin in March 2026, preserving family and party continuity in a Houston-area district with an R+11 partisan voting index. Democratic nominee Marquette Greene-Scott faces structural barriers typical of such seats, where recent statewide and presidential results have consistently favored Republicans. Trader pricing aligns with historical patterns for comparable Texas districts. Potential shifts could still arise from unexpected national political developments, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout differentials before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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