Virginia's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Jennifer McClellan secured reelection in 2024 with over 67% of the vote in a district that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, underscoring limited competitiveness. Trader consensus aligns with this structural advantage, though outcomes could shift due to unforeseen factors such as a late primary challenge, candidate health issues, or an unusually strong Republican national environment that boosts turnout and spending in the district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,277 Vol.
93%
共和党
$2,151 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Jennifer McClellan secured reelection in 2024 with over 67% of the vote in a district that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, underscoring limited competitiveness. Trader consensus aligns with this structural advantage, though outcomes could shift due to unforeseen factors such as a late primary challenge, candidate health issues, or an unusually strong Republican national environment that boosts turnout and spending in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$5,427終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Jennifer McClellan secured reelection in 2024 with over 67% of the vote in a district that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, underscoring limited competitiveness. Trader consensus aligns with this structural advantage, though outcomes could shift due to unforeseen factors such as a late primary challenge, candidate health issues, or an unusually strong Republican national environment that boosts turnout and spending in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,427終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Virginia's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Jennifer McClellan secured reelection in 2024 with over 67% of the vote in a district that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, underscoring limited competitiveness. Trader consensus aligns with this structural advantage, though outcomes could shift due to unforeseen factors such as a late primary challenge, candidate health issues, or an unusually strong Republican national environment that boosts turnout and spending in the district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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