Recent redistricting under Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has reshaped FL-22 into a more competitive seat stretching across parts of Broward and southwest Florida, shifting its partisan lean modestly toward Republicans compared with prior maps. This adjustment, combined with the open nature of the race following incumbent adjustments, has positioned the Republican nominee as the slight favorite in trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability. Multiple self-funded Republican primary contenders, including Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar, have injected millions in personal loans ahead of the August 18 primary, signaling robust early organization and resources. Democratic candidates such as Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley face a tighter path in the reconfigured district, though national targeting by the DCCC underscores the seat's potential as a battleground. The general election on November 3 will hinge on primary outcomes and turnout in key suburban areas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-22 House Election Winner
FL-22 House Election Winner
$35,006 Vol.
$35,006 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
57%
Democratic Party
41%
$35,006 Vol.
$35,006 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,613 Vol.
57%
Democratic Party
$14,393 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting under Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has reshaped FL-22 into a more competitive seat stretching across parts of Broward and southwest Florida, shifting its partisan lean modestly toward Republicans compared with prior maps. This adjustment, combined with the open nature of the race following incumbent adjustments, has positioned the Republican nominee as the slight favorite in trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability. Multiple self-funded Republican primary contenders, including Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar, have injected millions in personal loans ahead of the August 18 primary, signaling robust early organization and resources. Democratic candidates such as Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley face a tighter path in the reconfigured district, though national targeting by the DCCC underscores the seat's potential as a battleground. The general election on November 3 will hinge on primary outcomes and turnout in key suburban areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$35,006End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting under Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has reshaped FL-22 into a more competitive seat stretching across parts of Broward and southwest Florida, shifting its partisan lean modestly toward Republicans compared with prior maps. This adjustment, combined with the open nature of the race following incumbent adjustments, has positioned the Republican nominee as the slight favorite in trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability. Multiple self-funded Republican primary contenders, including Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar, have injected millions in personal loans ahead of the August 18 primary, signaling robust early organization and resources. Democratic candidates such as Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley face a tighter path in the reconfigured district, though national targeting by the DCCC underscores the seat's potential as a battleground. The general election on November 3 will hinge on primary outcomes and turnout in key suburban areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,006End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent redistricting under Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has reshaped FL-22 into a more competitive seat stretching across parts of Broward and southwest Florida, shifting its partisan lean modestly toward Republicans compared with prior maps. This adjustment, combined with the open nature of the race following incumbent adjustments, has positioned the Republican nominee as the slight favorite in trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability. Multiple self-funded Republican primary contenders, including Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar, have injected millions in personal loans ahead of the August 18 primary, signaling robust early organization and resources. Democratic candidates such as Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley face a tighter path in the reconfigured district, though national targeting by the DCCC underscores the seat's potential as a battleground. The general election on November 3 will hinge on primary outcomes and turnout in key suburban areas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions