Recent redistricting turned Florida’s 22nd District into an open-seat toss-up after shifting boundaries westward and producing a Trump +10.5 margin in 2024 presidential results. Late-cycle polling, including an October survey showing Pia Dandiya ahead 46-45, combined with her stronger grassroots fundraising and higher visibility through dozens of voter events, has shaped trader consensus favoring the Democrat. Casey Askar’s heavy self-funding and endorsements from Trump and Governor DeSantis have not fully offset perceptions of lower campaign visibility, keeping the race within a narrow margin consistent with the 63.5% implied probability for Dandiya.