Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open 11th congressional district seat in the August 2026 primary and now holds a commanding lead in the November general election. The district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Moss’s fundraising edge, legislative record as state Senate speaker pro tem, and endorsements from party leaders, underpin trader consensus around a 95 percent probability of victory. Ethan Baker, the unopposed Republican nominee and Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by major forecasters. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate controversies, or turnout anomalies remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though none have materialized in the weeks since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-11 House Election Winner
MI-11 House Election Winner
$81,446 Vol.
$81,446 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jeremy Moss (D)
96%
Ethan Baker (R)
3%
$81,446 Vol.
$81,446 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jeremy Moss (D)
$58,894 Vol.
96%
Ethan Baker (R)
$22,552 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open 11th congressional district seat in the August 2026 primary and now holds a commanding lead in the November general election. The district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Moss’s fundraising edge, legislative record as state Senate speaker pro tem, and endorsements from party leaders, underpin trader consensus around a 95 percent probability of victory. Ethan Baker, the unopposed Republican nominee and Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by major forecasters. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate controversies, or turnout anomalies remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though none have materialized in the weeks since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$81,446End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open 11th congressional district seat in the August 2026 primary and now holds a commanding lead in the November general election. The district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Moss’s fundraising edge, legislative record as state Senate speaker pro tem, and endorsements from party leaders, underpin trader consensus around a 95 percent probability of victory. Ethan Baker, the unopposed Republican nominee and Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by major forecasters. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate controversies, or turnout anomalies remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though none have materialized in the weeks since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$81,446End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open 11th congressional district seat in the August 2026 primary and now holds a commanding lead in the November general election. The district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Moss’s fundraising edge, legislative record as state Senate speaker pro tem, and endorsements from party leaders, underpin trader consensus around a 95 percent probability of victory. Ethan Baker, the unopposed Republican nominee and Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by major forecasters. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate controversies, or turnout anomalies remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though none have materialized in the weeks since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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