Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District in the August 2026 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote in an open-seat race vacated by incumbent Haley Stevens. The district, centered in Oakland County suburbs, carries a Democratic partisan lean reflected in consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Moss, a state senator and legislative leader with broad party endorsements, benefits from established name recognition and fundraising. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy’s mayor, advanced unopposed but faces structural disadvantages in a district where Democratic candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for Moss aligns with these baseline factors, though an unforeseen scandal, major turnout shift, or national political surge could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-11 House Election Winner
MI-11 House Election Winner
$81,122 Vol.
$81,122 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jeremy Moss (D)
97%
Ethan Baker (R)
3%
$81,122 Vol.
$81,122 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jeremy Moss (D)
$58,570 Vol.
97%
Ethan Baker (R)
$22,552 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District in the August 2026 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote in an open-seat race vacated by incumbent Haley Stevens. The district, centered in Oakland County suburbs, carries a Democratic partisan lean reflected in consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Moss, a state senator and legislative leader with broad party endorsements, benefits from established name recognition and fundraising. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy’s mayor, advanced unopposed but faces structural disadvantages in a district where Democratic candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for Moss aligns with these baseline factors, though an unforeseen scandal, major turnout shift, or national political surge could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$81,122End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District in the August 2026 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote in an open-seat race vacated by incumbent Haley Stevens. The district, centered in Oakland County suburbs, carries a Democratic partisan lean reflected in consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Moss, a state senator and legislative leader with broad party endorsements, benefits from established name recognition and fundraising. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy’s mayor, advanced unopposed but faces structural disadvantages in a district where Democratic candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for Moss aligns with these baseline factors, though an unforeseen scandal, major turnout shift, or national political surge could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$81,122End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District in the August 2026 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote in an open-seat race vacated by incumbent Haley Stevens. The district, centered in Oakland County suburbs, carries a Democratic partisan lean reflected in consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Moss, a state senator and legislative leader with broad party endorsements, benefits from established name recognition and fundraising. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy’s mayor, advanced unopposed but faces structural disadvantages in a district where Democratic candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for Moss aligns with these baseline factors, though an unforeseen scandal, major turnout shift, or national political surge could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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