Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding lead in the Florida 3rd congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Cammack advanced unopposed through the Republican primary and benefits from substantial fundraising, prior reelection margins exceeding 20 points, and endorsements including from President Trump. Democratic nominee Seth Harp emerged from an August 2026 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republicans have dominated recent cycles. Late developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues, or turnout shifts in key counties could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus assigns low probability to such outcomes before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-03 House Election Winner
FL-03 House Election Winner
$30,395 Vol.
$30,395 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kat Cammack (R)
94%
Seth Harp (D)
7%
$30,395 Vol.
$30,395 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kat Cammack (R)
$11,757 Vol.
94%
Seth Harp (D)
$18,638 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding lead in the Florida 3rd congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Cammack advanced unopposed through the Republican primary and benefits from substantial fundraising, prior reelection margins exceeding 20 points, and endorsements including from President Trump. Democratic nominee Seth Harp emerged from an August 2026 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republicans have dominated recent cycles. Late developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues, or turnout shifts in key counties could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus assigns low probability to such outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$30,395End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding lead in the Florida 3rd congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Cammack advanced unopposed through the Republican primary and benefits from substantial fundraising, prior reelection margins exceeding 20 points, and endorsements including from President Trump. Democratic nominee Seth Harp emerged from an August 2026 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republicans have dominated recent cycles. Late developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues, or turnout shifts in key counties could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus assigns low probability to such outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,395End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding lead in the Florida 3rd congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Cammack advanced unopposed through the Republican primary and benefits from substantial fundraising, prior reelection margins exceeding 20 points, and endorsements including from President Trump. Democratic nominee Seth Harp emerged from an August 2026 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republicans have dominated recent cycles. Late developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues, or turnout shifts in key counties could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus assigns low probability to such outcomes before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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