Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding position in Florida's 3rd Congressional District race, with traders assigning her a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Cammack's 61.6% win in 2024, underpins this outlook. Her unopposed Republican primary and substantial fundraising advantage—over $2 million raised versus under $40,000 for Democratic nominee Seth Harp—further reinforce the lead. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or major national political realignment in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-03 House Election Winner
FL-03 House Election Winner
$30,394 Vol.
$30,394 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kat Cammack (R)
94%
Seth Harp (D)
6%
$30,394 Vol.
$30,394 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kat Cammack (R)
$11,756 Vol.
94%
Seth Harp (D)
$18,638 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding position in Florida's 3rd Congressional District race, with traders assigning her a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Cammack's 61.6% win in 2024, underpins this outlook. Her unopposed Republican primary and substantial fundraising advantage—over $2 million raised versus under $40,000 for Democratic nominee Seth Harp—further reinforce the lead. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or major national political realignment in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$30,394End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding position in Florida's 3rd Congressional District race, with traders assigning her a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Cammack's 61.6% win in 2024, underpins this outlook. Her unopposed Republican primary and substantial fundraising advantage—over $2 million raised versus under $40,000 for Democratic nominee Seth Harp—further reinforce the lead. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or major national political realignment in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,394End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding position in Florida's 3rd Congressional District race, with traders assigning her a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Cammack's 61.6% win in 2024, underpins this outlook. Her unopposed Republican primary and substantial fundraising advantage—over $2 million raised versus under $40,000 for Democratic nominee Seth Harp—further reinforce the lead. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or major national political realignment in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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