Shontel Brown's incumbency in Ohio's 11th congressional district, combined with its strong Democratic lean (D+28 Cook PVI and consistent large margins for Democratic presidential and Senate candidates), anchors trader consensus around her reelection. She secured her party's nomination with 85.5% in the May primary, while Republican nominee Mike Kirchner advanced from a low-turnout contest with minimal fundraising or national attention. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's urban Cleveland-area demographics and voting history. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting Brown, or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-11 House Election Winner
OH-11 House Election Winner
$38,426 Vol.
$38,426 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Shontel Brown (D)
98%
Mike Kirchner (R)
1%
$38,426 Vol.
$38,426 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Shontel Brown (D)
$15,629 Vol.
98%
Mike Kirchner (R)
$22,797 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Shontel Brown's incumbency in Ohio's 11th congressional district, combined with its strong Democratic lean (D+28 Cook PVI and consistent large margins for Democratic presidential and Senate candidates), anchors trader consensus around her reelection. She secured her party's nomination with 85.5% in the May primary, while Republican nominee Mike Kirchner advanced from a low-turnout contest with minimal fundraising or national attention. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's urban Cleveland-area demographics and voting history. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting Brown, or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$38,426End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Shontel Brown's incumbency in Ohio's 11th congressional district, combined with its strong Democratic lean (D+28 Cook PVI and consistent large margins for Democratic presidential and Senate candidates), anchors trader consensus around her reelection. She secured her party's nomination with 85.5% in the May primary, while Republican nominee Mike Kirchner advanced from a low-turnout contest with minimal fundraising or national attention. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's urban Cleveland-area demographics and voting history. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting Brown, or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,426End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Shontel Brown's incumbency in Ohio's 11th congressional district, combined with its strong Democratic lean (D+28 Cook PVI and consistent large margins for Democratic presidential and Senate candidates), anchors trader consensus around her reelection. She secured her party's nomination with 85.5% in the May primary, while Republican nominee Mike Kirchner advanced from a low-turnout contest with minimal fundraising or national attention. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's urban Cleveland-area demographics and voting history. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting Brown, or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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