The solidly Democratic composition of Arizona's 7th congressional district, which covers much of the state's southern border region including parts of Tucson, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Adelita Grijalva secured the seat in a September 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote, building on her father's long tenure and demonstrating durable support in a district with a partisan voting index exceeding D+13. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic ahead of the July 21, 2026 primary and November general election. Scenarios that could narrow this margin remain limited but include an unexpected primary challenge, significant national political shifts, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments before voters finalize their ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,090 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$6,305 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic composition of Arizona's 7th congressional district, which covers much of the state's southern border region including parts of Tucson, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Adelita Grijalva secured the seat in a September 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote, building on her father's long tenure and demonstrating durable support in a district with a partisan voting index exceeding D+13. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic ahead of the July 21, 2026 primary and November general election. Scenarios that could narrow this margin remain limited but include an unexpected primary challenge, significant national political shifts, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments before voters finalize their ballots.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$9,395End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic composition of Arizona's 7th congressional district, which covers much of the state's southern border region including parts of Tucson, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Adelita Grijalva secured the seat in a September 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote, building on her father's long tenure and demonstrating durable support in a district with a partisan voting index exceeding D+13. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic ahead of the July 21, 2026 primary and November general election. Scenarios that could narrow this margin remain limited but include an unexpected primary challenge, significant national political shifts, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments before voters finalize their ballots.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,395End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Democratic composition of Arizona's 7th congressional district, which covers much of the state's southern border region including parts of Tucson, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Adelita Grijalva secured the seat in a September 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote, building on her father's long tenure and demonstrating durable support in a district with a partisan voting index exceeding D+13. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic ahead of the July 21, 2026 primary and November general election. Scenarios that could narrow this margin remain limited but include an unexpected primary challenge, significant national political shifts, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments before voters finalize their ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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