The open seat in Washington’s 4th Congressional District, created by incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse’s decision not to seek reelection, has drawn a crowded Republican primary field ahead of the August 4 top-two primary. The district’s strong Republican lean and partisan voting index continue to shape trader sentiment, with multiple GOP candidates including Amanda McKinney and Matt Boehnke posting substantial fundraising totals that far exceed the lone Democratic entrant, John Duresky. Recent campaign finance reports through March show Republican candidates maintaining clear cash-on-hand advantages, reinforcing the market’s assessment of the general-election outcome while the primary remains the nearer-term variable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-04 House Election Winner
WA-04 House Election Winner
$27,121 Vol.
$27,121 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
18%
$27,121 Vol.
$27,121 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,927 Vol.
81%
Democratic Party
$13,194 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Washington’s 4th Congressional District, created by incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse’s decision not to seek reelection, has drawn a crowded Republican primary field ahead of the August 4 top-two primary. The district’s strong Republican lean and partisan voting index continue to shape trader sentiment, with multiple GOP candidates including Amanda McKinney and Matt Boehnke posting substantial fundraising totals that far exceed the lone Democratic entrant, John Duresky. Recent campaign finance reports through March show Republican candidates maintaining clear cash-on-hand advantages, reinforcing the market’s assessment of the general-election outcome while the primary remains the nearer-term variable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$27,121End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Washington’s 4th Congressional District, created by incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse’s decision not to seek reelection, has drawn a crowded Republican primary field ahead of the August 4 top-two primary. The district’s strong Republican lean and partisan voting index continue to shape trader sentiment, with multiple GOP candidates including Amanda McKinney and Matt Boehnke posting substantial fundraising totals that far exceed the lone Democratic entrant, John Duresky. Recent campaign finance reports through March show Republican candidates maintaining clear cash-on-hand advantages, reinforcing the market’s assessment of the general-election outcome while the primary remains the nearer-term variable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,121End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Washington’s 4th Congressional District, created by incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse’s decision not to seek reelection, has drawn a crowded Republican primary field ahead of the August 4 top-two primary. The district’s strong Republican lean and partisan voting index continue to shape trader sentiment, with multiple GOP candidates including Amanda McKinney and Matt Boehnke posting substantial fundraising totals that far exceed the lone Democratic entrant, John Duresky. Recent campaign finance reports through March show Republican candidates maintaining clear cash-on-hand advantages, reinforcing the market’s assessment of the general-election outcome while the primary remains the nearer-term variable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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