Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the Utah 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+17 and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. Redistricting placed the former UT-3 incumbent in the new district after Burgess Owens retired, and Kennedy secured the nomination without a contested primary following strong convention performance. His campaign has raised over $800,000 compared with Jonny Larsen’s roughly $50,000, underscoring limited Democratic resources in a district where Republicans have dominated recent federal contests. With the November 3 general election two months away and no major recent developments altering the fundamentals, trader consensus aligns with the structural and financial advantages favoring the Republican nominee. Late developments such as a significant scandal or health event remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$42,280 Vol.
$42,280 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Kennedy (R)
95%
Jonny Larsen (D)
4%
$42,280 Vol.
$42,280 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Kennedy (R)
$16,189 Vol.
95%
Jonny Larsen (D)
$26,091 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the Utah 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+17 and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. Redistricting placed the former UT-3 incumbent in the new district after Burgess Owens retired, and Kennedy secured the nomination without a contested primary following strong convention performance. His campaign has raised over $800,000 compared with Jonny Larsen’s roughly $50,000, underscoring limited Democratic resources in a district where Republicans have dominated recent federal contests. With the November 3 general election two months away and no major recent developments altering the fundamentals, trader consensus aligns with the structural and financial advantages favoring the Republican nominee. Late developments such as a significant scandal or health event remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$42,280End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the Utah 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+17 and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. Redistricting placed the former UT-3 incumbent in the new district after Burgess Owens retired, and Kennedy secured the nomination without a contested primary following strong convention performance. His campaign has raised over $800,000 compared with Jonny Larsen’s roughly $50,000, underscoring limited Democratic resources in a district where Republicans have dominated recent federal contests. With the November 3 general election two months away and no major recent developments altering the fundamentals, trader consensus aligns with the structural and financial advantages favoring the Republican nominee. Late developments such as a significant scandal or health event remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,280End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the Utah 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+17 and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. Redistricting placed the former UT-3 incumbent in the new district after Burgess Owens retired, and Kennedy secured the nomination without a contested primary following strong convention performance. His campaign has raised over $800,000 compared with Jonny Larsen’s roughly $50,000, underscoring limited Democratic resources in a district where Republicans have dominated recent federal contests. With the November 3 general election two months away and no major recent developments altering the fundamentals, trader consensus aligns with the structural and financial advantages favoring the Republican nominee. Late developments such as a significant scandal or health event remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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