Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary with endorsements from retiring Representative Steny Hoyer and Governor Wes Moore, plus substantial outside spending from pro-Israel and cryptocurrency super PACs that helped him prevail in a crowded field. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for Democratic presidential candidates and a registration advantage exceeding 2-to-1, underpins trader consensus that the seat will remain in Democratic hands on November 3. Chris Chaffee’s Republican primary victory positions him as the general-election opponent, yet historical patterns in this Southern Maryland district show limited crossover support for GOP candidates. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as candidate-specific controversies or unusually high Republican turnout, though such shifts remain uncommon in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-05 House Election Winner
MD-05 House Election Winner
$18,216 Vol.
$18,216 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Adrian Boafo (D)
95%
Chris Chaffee (R)
3%
$18,216 Vol.
$18,216 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Adrian Boafo (D)
$8,754 Vol.
95%
Chris Chaffee (R)
$9,462 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary with endorsements from retiring Representative Steny Hoyer and Governor Wes Moore, plus substantial outside spending from pro-Israel and cryptocurrency super PACs that helped him prevail in a crowded field. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for Democratic presidential candidates and a registration advantage exceeding 2-to-1, underpins trader consensus that the seat will remain in Democratic hands on November 3. Chris Chaffee’s Republican primary victory positions him as the general-election opponent, yet historical patterns in this Southern Maryland district show limited crossover support for GOP candidates. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as candidate-specific controversies or unusually high Republican turnout, though such shifts remain uncommon in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$18,216End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary with endorsements from retiring Representative Steny Hoyer and Governor Wes Moore, plus substantial outside spending from pro-Israel and cryptocurrency super PACs that helped him prevail in a crowded field. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for Democratic presidential candidates and a registration advantage exceeding 2-to-1, underpins trader consensus that the seat will remain in Democratic hands on November 3. Chris Chaffee’s Republican primary victory positions him as the general-election opponent, yet historical patterns in this Southern Maryland district show limited crossover support for GOP candidates. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as candidate-specific controversies or unusually high Republican turnout, though such shifts remain uncommon in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,216End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary with endorsements from retiring Representative Steny Hoyer and Governor Wes Moore, plus substantial outside spending from pro-Israel and cryptocurrency super PACs that helped him prevail in a crowded field. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for Democratic presidential candidates and a registration advantage exceeding 2-to-1, underpins trader consensus that the seat will remain in Democratic hands on November 3. Chris Chaffee’s Republican primary victory positions him as the general-election opponent, yet historical patterns in this Southern Maryland district show limited crossover support for GOP candidates. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as candidate-specific controversies or unusually high Republican turnout, though such shifts remain uncommon in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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