Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's strong hold on California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 partisan lean, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November general election. DeSaulnier, first elected in 2014, won his last race by over 32 points amid multiple Democratic challengers and weak Republican opposition, reflecting the district's consistent voter preference. No recent polls or developments indicate a competitive threat, with forecasts like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic. Scenarios to shift odds include a major scandal hitting DeSaulnier, his health issues, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout, though structural barriers make these unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-10 House Election Winner
CA-10 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,494 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$3,313 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's strong hold on California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 partisan lean, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November general election. DeSaulnier, first elected in 2014, won his last race by over 32 points amid multiple Democratic challengers and weak Republican opposition, reflecting the district's consistent voter preference. No recent polls or developments indicate a competitive threat, with forecasts like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic. Scenarios to shift odds include a major scandal hitting DeSaulnier, his health issues, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout, though structural barriers make these unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,807End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's strong hold on California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 partisan lean, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November general election. DeSaulnier, first elected in 2014, won his last race by over 32 points amid multiple Democratic challengers and weak Republican opposition, reflecting the district's consistent voter preference. No recent polls or developments indicate a competitive threat, with forecasts like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic. Scenarios to shift odds include a major scandal hitting DeSaulnier, his health issues, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout, though structural barriers make these unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,807End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's strong hold on California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 partisan lean, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November general election. DeSaulnier, first elected in 2014, won his last race by over 32 points amid multiple Democratic challengers and weak Republican opposition, reflecting the district's consistent voter preference. No recent polls or developments indicate a competitive threat, with forecasts like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic. Scenarios to shift odds include a major scandal hitting DeSaulnier, his health issues, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout, though structural barriers make these unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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