California's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi's retirement, with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan to the November general election. Both candidates are Democrats, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic. Statewide polling shows strong Democratic preference in House contests, consistent with the district's voting patterns in San Francisco and surrounding areas. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate dynamics not observed in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, with limited scope for reversal absent major unforeseen events before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$21,773 Vol.
$21,773 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
$21,773 Vol.
$21,773 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$6,793 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi's retirement, with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan to the November general election. Both candidates are Democrats, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic. Statewide polling shows strong Democratic preference in House contests, consistent with the district's voting patterns in San Francisco and surrounding areas. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate dynamics not observed in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, with limited scope for reversal absent major unforeseen events before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,773End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi's retirement, with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan to the November general election. Both candidates are Democrats, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic. Statewide polling shows strong Democratic preference in House contests, consistent with the district's voting patterns in San Francisco and surrounding areas. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate dynamics not observed in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, with limited scope for reversal absent major unforeseen events before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,773End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi's retirement, with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan to the November general election. Both candidates are Democrats, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic. Statewide polling shows strong Democratic preference in House contests, consistent with the district's voting patterns in San Francisco and surrounding areas. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate dynamics not observed in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, with limited scope for reversal absent major unforeseen events before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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