California’s 11th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+36 rating and consistent historical results exceeding 80 percent for Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican contenders received under 6 percent combined. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3 general election Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that a Democratic nominee will prevail. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as a major candidate disqualification or late-breaking development capable of shifting the district’s entrenched voting patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$21,773 Vol.
$21,773 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
$21,773 Vol.
$21,773 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$6,793 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 11th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+36 rating and consistent historical results exceeding 80 percent for Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican contenders received under 6 percent combined. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3 general election Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that a Democratic nominee will prevail. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as a major candidate disqualification or late-breaking development capable of shifting the district’s entrenched voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,773End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 11th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+36 rating and consistent historical results exceeding 80 percent for Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican contenders received under 6 percent combined. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3 general election Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that a Democratic nominee will prevail. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as a major candidate disqualification or late-breaking development capable of shifting the district’s entrenched voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,773End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 11th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+36 rating and consistent historical results exceeding 80 percent for Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican contenders received under 6 percent combined. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3 general election Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that a Democratic nominee will prevail. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as a major candidate disqualification or late-breaking development capable of shifting the district’s entrenched voting patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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