California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features overwhelming Democratic voter registration and a long history of strong performance by Democratic candidates in federal races. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, reflecting the absence of competitive Republican contenders. Forecasters across outlets have rated the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with the district's electoral fundamentals. Trader consensus in the market reflects these structural barriers to a Republican victory. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal or unusual turnout patterns altering the outcome in this heavily Democratic area.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$11,420 Vol.
$11,420 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$11,420 Vol.
$11,420 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,493 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$4,927 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features overwhelming Democratic voter registration and a long history of strong performance by Democratic candidates in federal races. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, reflecting the absence of competitive Republican contenders. Forecasters across outlets have rated the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with the district's electoral fundamentals. Trader consensus in the market reflects these structural barriers to a Republican victory. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal or unusual turnout patterns altering the outcome in this heavily Democratic area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,420End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features overwhelming Democratic voter registration and a long history of strong performance by Democratic candidates in federal races. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, reflecting the absence of competitive Republican contenders. Forecasters across outlets have rated the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with the district's electoral fundamentals. Trader consensus in the market reflects these structural barriers to a Republican victory. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal or unusual turnout patterns altering the outcome in this heavily Democratic area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,420End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features overwhelming Democratic voter registration and a long history of strong performance by Democratic candidates in federal races. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, reflecting the absence of competitive Republican contenders. Forecasters across outlets have rated the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with the district's electoral fundamentals. Trader consensus in the market reflects these structural barriers to a Republican victory. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal or unusual turnout patterns altering the outcome in this heavily Democratic area.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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