In California's 11th Congressional District, trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 93.5% for the November 3 general election, driven by the district's strong D+36 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the sixth-most Democratic nationwide—and historical results where Nancy Pelosi won by 81%-19% margins as recently as 2024. Following Pelosi's retirement from the open seat, a crowded top-two primary on June 2 features eight Democrats including fundraising leaders state Sen. Scott Wiener ($2.8M raised), Saikat Chakrabarti ($1.8M), and Supervisor Connie Chan, per FEC filings through March. A March Data for Progress poll showed Wiener at 32%, Chakrabarti 20%, and Chan 17%, with no Republicans competitive. Forecasters rate it Solid/Safe Democratic. A Republican advance from the primary or post-primary scandal could challenge this, though barriers remain high given San Francisco's partisan makeup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$234 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's 11th Congressional District, trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 93.5% for the November 3 general election, driven by the district's strong D+36 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the sixth-most Democratic nationwide—and historical results where Nancy Pelosi won by 81%-19% margins as recently as 2024. Following Pelosi's retirement from the open seat, a crowded top-two primary on June 2 features eight Democrats including fundraising leaders state Sen. Scott Wiener ($2.8M raised), Saikat Chakrabarti ($1.8M), and Supervisor Connie Chan, per FEC filings through March. A March Data for Progress poll showed Wiener at 32%, Chakrabarti 20%, and Chan 17%, with no Republicans competitive. Forecasters rate it Solid/Safe Democratic. A Republican advance from the primary or post-primary scandal could challenge this, though barriers remain high given San Francisco's partisan makeup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$234End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's 11th Congressional District, trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 93.5% for the November 3 general election, driven by the district's strong D+36 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the sixth-most Democratic nationwide—and historical results where Nancy Pelosi won by 81%-19% margins as recently as 2024. Following Pelosi's retirement from the open seat, a crowded top-two primary on June 2 features eight Democrats including fundraising leaders state Sen. Scott Wiener ($2.8M raised), Saikat Chakrabarti ($1.8M), and Supervisor Connie Chan, per FEC filings through March. A March Data for Progress poll showed Wiener at 32%, Chakrabarti 20%, and Chan 17%, with no Republicans competitive. Forecasters rate it Solid/Safe Democratic. A Republican advance from the primary or post-primary scandal could challenge this, though barriers remain high given San Francisco's partisan makeup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$234End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In California's 11th Congressional District, trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 93.5% for the November 3 general election, driven by the district's strong D+36 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the sixth-most Democratic nationwide—and historical results where Nancy Pelosi won by 81%-19% margins as recently as 2024. Following Pelosi's retirement from the open seat, a crowded top-two primary on June 2 features eight Democrats including fundraising leaders state Sen. Scott Wiener ($2.8M raised), Saikat Chakrabarti ($1.8M), and Supervisor Connie Chan, per FEC filings through March. A March Data for Progress poll showed Wiener at 32%, Chakrabarti 20%, and Chan 17%, with no Republicans competitive. Forecasters rate it Solid/Safe Democratic. A Republican advance from the primary or post-primary scandal could challenge this, though barriers remain high given San Francisco's partisan makeup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions