Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder advanced from the June 2026 primary with a strong majority, facing Republican John McBride in the November general election for California's 9th congressional district. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the seat's composition, incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas from the eastern Bay Area and northern San Joaquin Valley while retaining key population centers like Stockton. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, citing the district's partisan baseline, Harder's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and consistent performance in recent cycles. The 93.5% Democratic consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors. A major national political realignment, unexpected scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events this far from election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,062 거래량
$15,062 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$15,062 거래량
$15,062 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$11,243 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$3,819 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder advanced from the June 2026 primary with a strong majority, facing Republican John McBride in the November general election for California's 9th congressional district. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the seat's composition, incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas from the eastern Bay Area and northern San Joaquin Valley while retaining key population centers like Stockton. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, citing the district's partisan baseline, Harder's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and consistent performance in recent cycles. The 93.5% Democratic consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors. A major national political realignment, unexpected scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events this far from election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$15,062종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder advanced from the June 2026 primary with a strong majority, facing Republican John McBride in the November general election for California's 9th congressional district. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the seat's composition, incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas from the eastern Bay Area and northern San Joaquin Valley while retaining key population centers like Stockton. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, citing the district's partisan baseline, Harder's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and consistent performance in recent cycles. The 93.5% Democratic consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors. A major national political realignment, unexpected scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events this far from election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,062종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder advanced from the June 2026 primary with a strong majority, facing Republican John McBride in the November general election for California's 9th congressional district. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the seat's composition, incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas from the eastern Bay Area and northern San Joaquin Valley while retaining key population centers like Stockton. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, citing the district's partisan baseline, Harder's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and consistent performance in recent cycles. The 93.5% Democratic consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors. A major national political realignment, unexpected scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events this far from election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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