Incumbent Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area, his incumbency since 2018, and decisive primary win in June 2026. Morelle secured the Democratic nomination with 63 percent against two challengers, while Virginia McIntyre advanced unopposed on the Republican side as a Monroe County legislator. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting historical margins and Morelle’s substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.7 million compared to McIntyre’s limited resources. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for late shifts absent major developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national political surge that could alter voter turnout in this Working Families-aligned seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-25 House Election Winner
NY-25 House Election Winner
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
3%
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
$22,758 Vol.
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
$10,354 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area, his incumbency since 2018, and decisive primary win in June 2026. Morelle secured the Democratic nomination with 63 percent against two challengers, while Virginia McIntyre advanced unopposed on the Republican side as a Monroe County legislator. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting historical margins and Morelle’s substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.7 million compared to McIntyre’s limited resources. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for late shifts absent major developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national political surge that could alter voter turnout in this Working Families-aligned seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,113End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area, his incumbency since 2018, and decisive primary win in June 2026. Morelle secured the Democratic nomination with 63 percent against two challengers, while Virginia McIntyre advanced unopposed on the Republican side as a Monroe County legislator. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting historical margins and Morelle’s substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.7 million compared to McIntyre’s limited resources. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for late shifts absent major developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national political surge that could alter voter turnout in this Working Families-aligned seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,113End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area, his incumbency since 2018, and decisive primary win in June 2026. Morelle secured the Democratic nomination with 63 percent against two challengers, while Virginia McIntyre advanced unopposed on the Republican side as a Monroe County legislator. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting historical margins and Morelle’s substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.7 million compared to McIntyre’s limited resources. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for late shifts absent major developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national political surge that could alter voter turnout in this Working Families-aligned seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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