Incumbent Republican Julie Fedorchak holds a commanding position in North Dakota’s at-large House race due to the state’s strong Republican lean, her decisive primary victory over an intra-party challenger, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.7 million compared to Democratic-NPL nominee Trygve Hammer’s roughly $190,000. The contest is a rematch of the 2024 election, where Fedorchak prevailed by nearly 39 points, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Two independents also appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot, though they have shown limited traction. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including Fedorchak’s Trump endorsement and legislative record. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, yet the incumbent’s resources, primary performance, and the state’s partisan baseline create significant barriers to an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedND-AL House Election Winner
ND-AL House Election Winner
$59,934 Vol.
$59,934 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Julie Fedorchak (R)
96%
Trygve Hammer (D)
3%
$59,934 Vol.
$59,934 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Julie Fedorchak (R)
$43,126 Vol.
96%
Trygve Hammer (D)
$16,808 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Julie Fedorchak holds a commanding position in North Dakota’s at-large House race due to the state’s strong Republican lean, her decisive primary victory over an intra-party challenger, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.7 million compared to Democratic-NPL nominee Trygve Hammer’s roughly $190,000. The contest is a rematch of the 2024 election, where Fedorchak prevailed by nearly 39 points, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Two independents also appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot, though they have shown limited traction. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including Fedorchak’s Trump endorsement and legislative record. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, yet the incumbent’s resources, primary performance, and the state’s partisan baseline create significant barriers to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$59,934End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Julie Fedorchak holds a commanding position in North Dakota’s at-large House race due to the state’s strong Republican lean, her decisive primary victory over an intra-party challenger, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.7 million compared to Democratic-NPL nominee Trygve Hammer’s roughly $190,000. The contest is a rematch of the 2024 election, where Fedorchak prevailed by nearly 39 points, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Two independents also appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot, though they have shown limited traction. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including Fedorchak’s Trump endorsement and legislative record. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, yet the incumbent’s resources, primary performance, and the state’s partisan baseline create significant barriers to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$59,934End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Julie Fedorchak holds a commanding position in North Dakota’s at-large House race due to the state’s strong Republican lean, her decisive primary victory over an intra-party challenger, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.7 million compared to Democratic-NPL nominee Trygve Hammer’s roughly $190,000. The contest is a rematch of the 2024 election, where Fedorchak prevailed by nearly 39 points, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Two independents also appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot, though they have shown limited traction. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including Fedorchak’s Trump endorsement and legislative record. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, yet the incumbent’s resources, primary performance, and the state’s partisan baseline create significant barriers to an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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