Incumbent Republican Rep. Julie Fedorchak's strong position in North Dakota's deeply Republican at-large House district underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 92.5%, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance—evident in her 2024 special election landslide and historical base rates where Democrats have not held the seat since 2010. Recent candidate announcements, including GOP primary challenger Alex Balazs in December 2025 and Democrat Trygve Hammer's second bid in January 2026, have not shifted polling or sentiment, with Fedorchak leading Kalshi primary odds at 96%. The June 9 Republican primary looms as a key event, though even a Balazs upset would likely secure the general election on November 3 absent a major scandal, national Democratic wave, or unforeseen legal issues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedND-AL House Election Winner
ND-AL House Election Winner
$15,294 Vol.
$15,294 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$15,294 Vol.
$15,294 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,837 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$8,457 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Julie Fedorchak's strong position in North Dakota's deeply Republican at-large House district underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 92.5%, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance—evident in her 2024 special election landslide and historical base rates where Democrats have not held the seat since 2010. Recent candidate announcements, including GOP primary challenger Alex Balazs in December 2025 and Democrat Trygve Hammer's second bid in January 2026, have not shifted polling or sentiment, with Fedorchak leading Kalshi primary odds at 96%. The June 9 Republican primary looms as a key event, though even a Balazs upset would likely secure the general election on November 3 absent a major scandal, national Democratic wave, or unforeseen legal issues.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$15,294End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Julie Fedorchak's strong position in North Dakota's deeply Republican at-large House district underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 92.5%, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance—evident in her 2024 special election landslide and historical base rates where Democrats have not held the seat since 2010. Recent candidate announcements, including GOP primary challenger Alex Balazs in December 2025 and Democrat Trygve Hammer's second bid in January 2026, have not shifted polling or sentiment, with Fedorchak leading Kalshi primary odds at 96%. The June 9 Republican primary looms as a key event, though even a Balazs upset would likely secure the general election on November 3 absent a major scandal, national Democratic wave, or unforeseen legal issues.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,294End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Julie Fedorchak's strong position in North Dakota's deeply Republican at-large House district underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 92.5%, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance—evident in her 2024 special election landslide and historical base rates where Democrats have not held the seat since 2010. Recent candidate announcements, including GOP primary challenger Alex Balazs in December 2025 and Democrat Trygve Hammer's second bid in January 2026, have not shifted polling or sentiment, with Fedorchak leading Kalshi primary odds at 96%. The June 9 Republican primary looms as a key event, though even a Balazs upset would likely secure the general election on November 3 absent a major scandal, national Democratic wave, or unforeseen legal issues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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