Incumbent Democrat Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole with roughly 60 percent of the vote, overcoming criticism over past bipartisan votes on issues like voter eligibility. The Honolulu-centered district has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, including Case’s 71.8 percent victory in 2024. Republican nominee Adriel Lam, a retired Army officer who ran unopposed in his primary, faces structural barriers in the D+13 area. Nonpartisan and Green Party candidates are also on the ballot but remain marginal. Trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan baseline and Case’s established incumbency advantage, though late developments such as health concerns or major scandals could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$41,161 Vol.
$41,161 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ed Case (D)
96%
Adriel Lam (R)
4%
$41,161 Vol.
$41,161 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,163 Vol.
96%
Adriel Lam (R)
$25,998 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole with roughly 60 percent of the vote, overcoming criticism over past bipartisan votes on issues like voter eligibility. The Honolulu-centered district has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, including Case’s 71.8 percent victory in 2024. Republican nominee Adriel Lam, a retired Army officer who ran unopposed in his primary, faces structural barriers in the D+13 area. Nonpartisan and Green Party candidates are also on the ballot but remain marginal. Trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan baseline and Case’s established incumbency advantage, though late developments such as health concerns or major scandals could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$41,161End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole with roughly 60 percent of the vote, overcoming criticism over past bipartisan votes on issues like voter eligibility. The Honolulu-centered district has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, including Case’s 71.8 percent victory in 2024. Republican nominee Adriel Lam, a retired Army officer who ran unopposed in his primary, faces structural barriers in the D+13 area. Nonpartisan and Green Party candidates are also on the ballot but remain marginal. Trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan baseline and Case’s established incumbency advantage, though late developments such as health concerns or major scandals could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,161End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole with roughly 60 percent of the vote, overcoming criticism over past bipartisan votes on issues like voter eligibility. The Honolulu-centered district has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, including Case’s 71.8 percent victory in 2024. Republican nominee Adriel Lam, a retired Army officer who ran unopposed in his primary, faces structural barriers in the D+13 area. Nonpartisan and Green Party candidates are also on the ballot but remain marginal. Trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan baseline and Case’s established incumbency advantage, though late developments such as health concerns or major scandals could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions