Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District because the Honolulu-centered seat has long favored Democrats by wide margins, with Case winning 71.8% in 2024 and securing the nomination in the August 2026 primary by roughly 20 points over his strongest challenger. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Adriel Lam, the unopposed GOP nominee, faces structural barriers typical of the district’s partisan composition. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or dramatic national political shift before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$41,161 Vol.
$41,161 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ed Case (D)
96%
Adriel Lam (R)
4%
$41,161 Vol.
$41,161 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,163 Vol.
96%
Adriel Lam (R)
$25,998 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District because the Honolulu-centered seat has long favored Democrats by wide margins, with Case winning 71.8% in 2024 and securing the nomination in the August 2026 primary by roughly 20 points over his strongest challenger. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Adriel Lam, the unopposed GOP nominee, faces structural barriers typical of the district’s partisan composition. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or dramatic national political shift before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$41,161End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District because the Honolulu-centered seat has long favored Democrats by wide margins, with Case winning 71.8% in 2024 and securing the nomination in the August 2026 primary by roughly 20 points over his strongest challenger. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Adriel Lam, the unopposed GOP nominee, faces structural barriers typical of the district’s partisan composition. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or dramatic national political shift before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,161End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Ed Case holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District because the Honolulu-centered seat has long favored Democrats by wide margins, with Case winning 71.8% in 2024 and securing the nomination in the August 2026 primary by roughly 20 points over his strongest challenger. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Adriel Lam, the unopposed GOP nominee, faces structural barriers typical of the district’s partisan composition. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or dramatic national political shift before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions