Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured a commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District after defeating his strongest primary challenger in August 2026 with roughly 60% of the vote. The solidly Democratic seat, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report and similar forecasters, has delivered consistent margins for Case in prior general elections. Adriel Lam, the Republican nominee, advanced unopposed but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have dominated recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95% for Case reflects these fundamentals, including the incumbent's fundraising edge and the absence of competitive opposition. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan wave could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$35,559 Vol.
$35,559 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$35,559 Vol.
$35,559 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,153 Vol.
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$20,405 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured a commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District after defeating his strongest primary challenger in August 2026 with roughly 60% of the vote. The solidly Democratic seat, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report and similar forecasters, has delivered consistent margins for Case in prior general elections. Adriel Lam, the Republican nominee, advanced unopposed but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have dominated recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95% for Case reflects these fundamentals, including the incumbent's fundraising edge and the absence of competitive opposition. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan wave could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$35,559End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured a commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District after defeating his strongest primary challenger in August 2026 with roughly 60% of the vote. The solidly Democratic seat, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report and similar forecasters, has delivered consistent margins for Case in prior general elections. Adriel Lam, the Republican nominee, advanced unopposed but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have dominated recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95% for Case reflects these fundamentals, including the incumbent's fundraising edge and the absence of competitive opposition. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan wave could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,559End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured a commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District after defeating his strongest primary challenger in August 2026 with roughly 60% of the vote. The solidly Democratic seat, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report and similar forecasters, has delivered consistent margins for Case in prior general elections. Adriel Lam, the Republican nominee, advanced unopposed but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have dominated recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95% for Case reflects these fundamentals, including the incumbent's fundraising edge and the absence of competitive opposition. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan wave could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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