Hawaii's 2nd congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and rates as Solid Democratic across major forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, first elected in 2022, maintains a substantial fundraising edge and faces limited primary opposition ahead of the August 8, 2026, contest, while Republican Brenton Awa leads his party's side with far fewer resources. These structural factors, combined with the district's history of large Democratic margins, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold. A national Republican wave or unforeseen developments could narrow the gap, yet the district's partisan baseline and incumbent resources present significant obstacles to an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHI-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
HI-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$54,287 Объем
$54,287 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
92%
Республиканская партия
8%
$54,287 Объем
$54,287 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$42,926 Объем
92%
Республиканская партия
$11,361 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and rates as Solid Democratic across major forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, first elected in 2022, maintains a substantial fundraising edge and faces limited primary opposition ahead of the August 8, 2026, contest, while Republican Brenton Awa leads his party's side with far fewer resources. These structural factors, combined with the district's history of large Democratic margins, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold. A national Republican wave or unforeseen developments could narrow the gap, yet the district's partisan baseline and incumbent resources present significant obstacles to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Объем
$54,287Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and rates as Solid Democratic across major forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, first elected in 2022, maintains a substantial fundraising edge and faces limited primary opposition ahead of the August 8, 2026, contest, while Republican Brenton Awa leads his party's side with far fewer resources. These structural factors, combined with the district's history of large Democratic margins, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold. A national Republican wave or unforeseen developments could narrow the gap, yet the district's partisan baseline and incumbent resources present significant obstacles to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$54,287Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 2nd congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and rates as Solid Democratic across major forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, first elected in 2022, maintains a substantial fundraising edge and faces limited primary opposition ahead of the August 8, 2026, contest, while Republican Brenton Awa leads his party's side with far fewer resources. These structural factors, combined with the district's history of large Democratic margins, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold. A national Republican wave or unforeseen developments could narrow the gap, yet the district's partisan baseline and incumbent resources present significant obstacles to an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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