William Lawrence secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 7th District after winning the August 4 primary against two more moderate opponents in the competitive Lansing-area seat. The district, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, flipped to Republican Tom Barrett in 2024 and remains a prime target for Democrats seeking to regain the House majority. On September 15 the DCCC added Lawrence to its Red to Blue program, directing national resources into the contest. Lawrence’s campaign has emphasized local concerns including data-center development and housing costs, while Barrett, a first-term Army veteran incumbent, benefits from name recognition in a district that leans slightly Republican in recent presidential voting. These factors have produced closely divided trader consensus six weeks before the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,043 Vol.
$21,043 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
William Lawrence (D)
56%
Tom Barrett (R)
45%
$21,043 Vol.
$21,043 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
William Lawrence (D)
$13,973 Vol.
56%
Tom Barrett (R)
$7,069 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).William Lawrence secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 7th District after winning the August 4 primary against two more moderate opponents in the competitive Lansing-area seat. The district, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, flipped to Republican Tom Barrett in 2024 and remains a prime target for Democrats seeking to regain the House majority. On September 15 the DCCC added Lawrence to its Red to Blue program, directing national resources into the contest. Lawrence’s campaign has emphasized local concerns including data-center development and housing costs, while Barrett, a first-term Army veteran incumbent, benefits from name recognition in a district that leans slightly Republican in recent presidential voting. These factors have produced closely divided trader consensus six weeks before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$21,043End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).William Lawrence secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 7th District after winning the August 4 primary against two more moderate opponents in the competitive Lansing-area seat. The district, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, flipped to Republican Tom Barrett in 2024 and remains a prime target for Democrats seeking to regain the House majority. On September 15 the DCCC added Lawrence to its Red to Blue program, directing national resources into the contest. Lawrence’s campaign has emphasized local concerns including data-center development and housing costs, while Barrett, a first-term Army veteran incumbent, benefits from name recognition in a district that leans slightly Republican in recent presidential voting. These factors have produced closely divided trader consensus six weeks before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,043End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...William Lawrence secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 7th District after winning the August 4 primary against two more moderate opponents in the competitive Lansing-area seat. The district, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, flipped to Republican Tom Barrett in 2024 and remains a prime target for Democrats seeking to regain the House majority. On September 15 the DCCC added Lawrence to its Red to Blue program, directing national resources into the contest. Lawrence’s campaign has emphasized local concerns including data-center development and housing costs, while Barrett, a first-term Army veteran incumbent, benefits from name recognition in a district that leans slightly Republican in recent presidential voting. These factors have produced closely divided trader consensus six weeks before the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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