Recent developments in Michigan’s 7th congressional district have shaped trader views on the November 2026 contest between Democrat William Lawrence and Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence’s August primary victory as a progressive activist, backed by organized labor and national Democratic groups, consolidated support in a district Trump carried by roughly eight points in 2024. The DCCC’s mid-September addition of Lawrence to its Red to Blue program signaled heightened investment and organizational focus on flipping the seat. Barrett’s first-term record and votes aligning with the Trump administration remain central to the campaign, while Lawrence emphasizes opposition to data centers and economic populism. Polling remains tight, with small-sample surveys showing narrow leads in either direction, leaving the race among the most closely watched House battlegrounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,077 Vol.
$23,077 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
William Lawrence (D)
56%
Tom Barrett (R)
45%
$23,077 Vol.
$23,077 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
William Lawrence (D)
$14,603 Vol.
56%
Tom Barrett (R)
$8,474 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent developments in Michigan’s 7th congressional district have shaped trader views on the November 2026 contest between Democrat William Lawrence and Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence’s August primary victory as a progressive activist, backed by organized labor and national Democratic groups, consolidated support in a district Trump carried by roughly eight points in 2024. The DCCC’s mid-September addition of Lawrence to its Red to Blue program signaled heightened investment and organizational focus on flipping the seat. Barrett’s first-term record and votes aligning with the Trump administration remain central to the campaign, while Lawrence emphasizes opposition to data centers and economic populism. Polling remains tight, with small-sample surveys showing narrow leads in either direction, leaving the race among the most closely watched House battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$23,077End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent developments in Michigan’s 7th congressional district have shaped trader views on the November 2026 contest between Democrat William Lawrence and Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence’s August primary victory as a progressive activist, backed by organized labor and national Democratic groups, consolidated support in a district Trump carried by roughly eight points in 2024. The DCCC’s mid-September addition of Lawrence to its Red to Blue program signaled heightened investment and organizational focus on flipping the seat. Barrett’s first-term record and votes aligning with the Trump administration remain central to the campaign, while Lawrence emphasizes opposition to data centers and economic populism. Polling remains tight, with small-sample surveys showing narrow leads in either direction, leaving the race among the most closely watched House battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,077End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent developments in Michigan’s 7th congressional district have shaped trader views on the November 2026 contest between Democrat William Lawrence and Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence’s August primary victory as a progressive activist, backed by organized labor and national Democratic groups, consolidated support in a district Trump carried by roughly eight points in 2024. The DCCC’s mid-September addition of Lawrence to its Red to Blue program signaled heightened investment and organizational focus on flipping the seat. Barrett’s first-term record and votes aligning with the Trump administration remain central to the campaign, while Lawrence emphasizes opposition to data centers and economic populism. Polling remains tight, with small-sample surveys showing narrow leads in either direction, leaving the race among the most closely watched House battlegrounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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