Yassamin Ansari holds a commanding position in the AZ-03 race as the Democratic incumbent in a district rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters, with a partisan lean exceeding D+20 and a recent general election margin near 44 points. She advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary after raising substantial campaign funds, while Republican efforts produced only write-in candidacies with negligible support and a minor No Labels entry. This absence of viable opposition in a majority-Latino Phoenix-area seat drives the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected third-party surge remain the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-03 House Election Winner
AZ-03 House Election Winner
$52,732 Vol.
$52,732 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Yassamin Ansari (D)
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$52,732 Vol.
$52,732 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Yassamin Ansari (D)
$32,813 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$19,919 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari holds a commanding position in the AZ-03 race as the Democratic incumbent in a district rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters, with a partisan lean exceeding D+20 and a recent general election margin near 44 points. She advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary after raising substantial campaign funds, while Republican efforts produced only write-in candidacies with negligible support and a minor No Labels entry. This absence of viable opposition in a majority-Latino Phoenix-area seat drives the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected third-party surge remain the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$52,732End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari holds a commanding position in the AZ-03 race as the Democratic incumbent in a district rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters, with a partisan lean exceeding D+20 and a recent general election margin near 44 points. She advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary after raising substantial campaign funds, while Republican efforts produced only write-in candidacies with negligible support and a minor No Labels entry. This absence of viable opposition in a majority-Latino Phoenix-area seat drives the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected third-party surge remain the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,732End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Yassamin Ansari holds a commanding position in the AZ-03 race as the Democratic incumbent in a district rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters, with a partisan lean exceeding D+20 and a recent general election margin near 44 points. She advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary after raising substantial campaign funds, while Republican efforts produced only write-in candidacies with negligible support and a minor No Labels entry. This absence of viable opposition in a majority-Latino Phoenix-area seat drives the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected third-party surge remain the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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