Greg Stanton holds a commanding position as the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, a seat rated solid or safe Democratic by multiple forecasters with a D+4 partisan voter index. His comfortable primary victory over a progressive challenger, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million compared to Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser’s roughly $565,000, and the district’s consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability. A September candidate forum highlighted policy contrasts on healthcare costs, border security, and tariffs without shifting the race’s fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong third-party showing on the November 3, 2026 ballot could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current indicators suggest limited scope for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$39,745 Vol.
$39,745 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Greg Stanton (D)
95%
Zuhdi Jasser (R)
5%
$39,745 Vol.
$39,745 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Greg Stanton (D)
$25,677 Vol.
95%
Zuhdi Jasser (R)
$14,067 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Stanton holds a commanding position as the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, a seat rated solid or safe Democratic by multiple forecasters with a D+4 partisan voter index. His comfortable primary victory over a progressive challenger, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million compared to Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser’s roughly $565,000, and the district’s consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability. A September candidate forum highlighted policy contrasts on healthcare costs, border security, and tariffs without shifting the race’s fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong third-party showing on the November 3, 2026 ballot could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current indicators suggest limited scope for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$39,745End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Stanton holds a commanding position as the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, a seat rated solid or safe Democratic by multiple forecasters with a D+4 partisan voter index. His comfortable primary victory over a progressive challenger, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million compared to Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser’s roughly $565,000, and the district’s consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability. A September candidate forum highlighted policy contrasts on healthcare costs, border security, and tariffs without shifting the race’s fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong third-party showing on the November 3, 2026 ballot could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current indicators suggest limited scope for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,745End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Greg Stanton holds a commanding position as the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, a seat rated solid or safe Democratic by multiple forecasters with a D+4 partisan voter index. His comfortable primary victory over a progressive challenger, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million compared to Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser’s roughly $565,000, and the district’s consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability. A September candidate forum highlighted policy contrasts on healthcare costs, border security, and tariffs without shifting the race’s fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong third-party showing on the November 3, 2026 ballot could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current indicators suggest limited scope for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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