JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong position in the Arizona 6th congressional district race ahead of the November 3 general election, with traders assigning her an 83% implied probability. The even Cook Partisan Voting Index district has trended Democratic in recent cycles, including wins by Senator Ruben Gallego and Governor Katie Hobbs. Mendoza, a Marine veteran and first-time candidate, has outraised incumbent Juan Ciscomani, securing over $7.3 million compared to his $6.2 million as of early July, while early polling showed her with a narrow lead. Both candidates advanced unopposed through July primaries, and a September debate highlighted contrasting focuses on affordability and Ciscomani’s legislative record. These factors, combined with national attention on the toss-up seat, underpin current market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,947 Vol.
$11,947 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
JoAnna Mendoza (D)
83%
Juan Ciscomani (R)
18%
$11,947 Vol.
$11,947 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
JoAnna Mendoza (D)
$4,043 Vol.
83%
Juan Ciscomani (R)
$7,905 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong position in the Arizona 6th congressional district race ahead of the November 3 general election, with traders assigning her an 83% implied probability. The even Cook Partisan Voting Index district has trended Democratic in recent cycles, including wins by Senator Ruben Gallego and Governor Katie Hobbs. Mendoza, a Marine veteran and first-time candidate, has outraised incumbent Juan Ciscomani, securing over $7.3 million compared to his $6.2 million as of early July, while early polling showed her with a narrow lead. Both candidates advanced unopposed through July primaries, and a September debate highlighted contrasting focuses on affordability and Ciscomani’s legislative record. These factors, combined with national attention on the toss-up seat, underpin current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$11,947End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong position in the Arizona 6th congressional district race ahead of the November 3 general election, with traders assigning her an 83% implied probability. The even Cook Partisan Voting Index district has trended Democratic in recent cycles, including wins by Senator Ruben Gallego and Governor Katie Hobbs. Mendoza, a Marine veteran and first-time candidate, has outraised incumbent Juan Ciscomani, securing over $7.3 million compared to his $6.2 million as of early July, while early polling showed her with a narrow lead. Both candidates advanced unopposed through July primaries, and a September debate highlighted contrasting focuses on affordability and Ciscomani’s legislative record. These factors, combined with national attention on the toss-up seat, underpin current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,947End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong position in the Arizona 6th congressional district race ahead of the November 3 general election, with traders assigning her an 83% implied probability. The even Cook Partisan Voting Index district has trended Democratic in recent cycles, including wins by Senator Ruben Gallego and Governor Katie Hobbs. Mendoza, a Marine veteran and first-time candidate, has outraised incumbent Juan Ciscomani, securing over $7.3 million compared to his $6.2 million as of early July, while early polling showed her with a narrow lead. Both candidates advanced unopposed through July primaries, and a September debate highlighted contrasting focuses on affordability and Ciscomani’s legislative record. These factors, combined with national attention on the toss-up seat, underpin current market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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