Texas's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican stronghold, rated Solid R by the Cook Political Report with an R+21 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to price the Republican Party at 86% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner. Incumbent Pat Fallon easily won the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination without serious intra-party contest, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from his uncontested primary. No recent polling or developments indicate a competitive race, as the district's conservative rural and suburban makeup in northeast Texas favors GOP incumbents historically. Absent major scandals, nationalized midterms, or shifts in turnout, structural advantages sustain the lopsided odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-04 House Election Winner
TX-04 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
86%
Democratic Party
$1,642 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican stronghold, rated Solid R by the Cook Political Report with an R+21 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to price the Republican Party at 86% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner. Incumbent Pat Fallon easily won the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination without serious intra-party contest, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from his uncontested primary. No recent polling or developments indicate a competitive race, as the district's conservative rural and suburban makeup in northeast Texas favors GOP incumbents historically. Absent major scandals, nationalized midterms, or shifts in turnout, structural advantages sustain the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$1,642End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican stronghold, rated Solid R by the Cook Political Report with an R+21 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to price the Republican Party at 86% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner. Incumbent Pat Fallon easily won the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination without serious intra-party contest, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from his uncontested primary. No recent polling or developments indicate a competitive race, as the district's conservative rural and suburban makeup in northeast Texas favors GOP incumbents historically. Absent major scandals, nationalized midterms, or shifts in turnout, structural advantages sustain the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,642End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican stronghold, rated Solid R by the Cook Political Report with an R+21 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to price the Republican Party at 86% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner. Incumbent Pat Fallon easily won the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination without serious intra-party contest, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from his uncontested primary. No recent polling or developments indicate a competitive race, as the district's conservative rural and suburban makeup in northeast Texas favors GOP incumbents historically. Absent major scandals, nationalized midterms, or shifts in turnout, structural advantages sustain the lopsided odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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