Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 4th congressional district in the March 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote against a single challenger, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from a close primary contest. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and the party's strong performance in recent cycles. Fallon's substantial fundraising advantage and the district's voter composition in eastern Texas counties and suburban areas have reinforced trader consensus around a Republican hold. The general election on November 3, 2026, remains months away, leaving room for shifts driven by national conditions, turnout patterns, or late developments that could alter the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-04 House Election Winner
TX-04 House Election Winner
$43,829 Vol.
$43,829 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Pat Fallon (R)
95%
Jason Pearce (D)
5%
$43,829 Vol.
$43,829 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Pat Fallon (R)
$21,766 Vol.
95%
Jason Pearce (D)
$22,063 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 4th congressional district in the March 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote against a single challenger, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from a close primary contest. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and the party's strong performance in recent cycles. Fallon's substantial fundraising advantage and the district's voter composition in eastern Texas counties and suburban areas have reinforced trader consensus around a Republican hold. The general election on November 3, 2026, remains months away, leaving room for shifts driven by national conditions, turnout patterns, or late developments that could alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$43,829End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 4th congressional district in the March 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote against a single challenger, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from a close primary contest. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and the party's strong performance in recent cycles. Fallon's substantial fundraising advantage and the district's voter composition in eastern Texas counties and suburban areas have reinforced trader consensus around a Republican hold. The general election on November 3, 2026, remains months away, leaving room for shifts driven by national conditions, turnout patterns, or late developments that could alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,829End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 4th congressional district in the March 2026 primary with over 80 percent of the vote against a single challenger, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from a close primary contest. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and the party's strong performance in recent cycles. Fallon's substantial fundraising advantage and the district's voter composition in eastern Texas counties and suburban areas have reinforced trader consensus around a Republican hold. The general election on November 3, 2026, remains months away, leaving room for shifts driven by national conditions, turnout patterns, or late developments that could alter the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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