Incumbent Keith Self secured a strong Republican primary victory in March 2026 with over 80 percent of the vote in Texas's 3rd Congressional District, advancing to face Democrat Evan Hunt in the November general election. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and recent redistricting that strengthened Republican performance in Collin and surrounding counties underpin trader consensus favoring Self at 94.5 percent implied probability. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. Hunt has conducted virtual town halls and debate challenges since the primary, yet no polling or fundraising shifts have altered the competitive landscape. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges or unforeseen candidate issues could still influence the final margin before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-03 House Election Winner
TX-03 House Election Winner
$37,799 Vol.
$37,799 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Keith Self (R)
95%
Evan Hunt (D)
6%
$37,799 Vol.
$37,799 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Keith Self (R)
$26,460 Vol.
95%
Evan Hunt (D)
$11,339 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Keith Self secured a strong Republican primary victory in March 2026 with over 80 percent of the vote in Texas's 3rd Congressional District, advancing to face Democrat Evan Hunt in the November general election. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and recent redistricting that strengthened Republican performance in Collin and surrounding counties underpin trader consensus favoring Self at 94.5 percent implied probability. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. Hunt has conducted virtual town halls and debate challenges since the primary, yet no polling or fundraising shifts have altered the competitive landscape. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges or unforeseen candidate issues could still influence the final margin before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$37,799End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Keith Self secured a strong Republican primary victory in March 2026 with over 80 percent of the vote in Texas's 3rd Congressional District, advancing to face Democrat Evan Hunt in the November general election. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and recent redistricting that strengthened Republican performance in Collin and surrounding counties underpin trader consensus favoring Self at 94.5 percent implied probability. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. Hunt has conducted virtual town halls and debate challenges since the primary, yet no polling or fundraising shifts have altered the competitive landscape. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges or unforeseen candidate issues could still influence the final margin before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,799End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Keith Self secured a strong Republican primary victory in March 2026 with over 80 percent of the vote in Texas's 3rd Congressional District, advancing to face Democrat Evan Hunt in the November general election. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and recent redistricting that strengthened Republican performance in Collin and surrounding counties underpin trader consensus favoring Self at 94.5 percent implied probability. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. Hunt has conducted virtual town halls and debate challenges since the primary, yet no polling or fundraising shifts have altered the competitive landscape. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges or unforeseen candidate issues could still influence the final margin before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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