Incumbent Rep. Keith Self's dominant 80% victory in the March 3 Republican primary over challenger Mark Newgent solidified his path to the November general election against Democrat Evan Hunt, who advanced unopposed, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability for a Republican win in TX-03. The district's R+10 to R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Solid Republican ratings from Cook and others, and Self's prior general election margins exceeding 24 points underpin this positioning, even after mid-decade redistricting added rural eastern counties comprising nearly a quarter of the electorate. Absent polls show no competitive signals, with the race on track as a GOP hold barring unforeseen shifts like scandals or national trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-03 House Election Winner
TX-03 House Election Winner
$11,409 Vol.
$11,409 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
11%
$11,409 Vol.
$11,409 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,560 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$4,849 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Keith Self's dominant 80% victory in the March 3 Republican primary over challenger Mark Newgent solidified his path to the November general election against Democrat Evan Hunt, who advanced unopposed, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability for a Republican win in TX-03. The district's R+10 to R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Solid Republican ratings from Cook and others, and Self's prior general election margins exceeding 24 points underpin this positioning, even after mid-decade redistricting added rural eastern counties comprising nearly a quarter of the electorate. Absent polls show no competitive signals, with the race on track as a GOP hold barring unforeseen shifts like scandals or national trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$11,409End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Keith Self's dominant 80% victory in the March 3 Republican primary over challenger Mark Newgent solidified his path to the November general election against Democrat Evan Hunt, who advanced unopposed, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability for a Republican win in TX-03. The district's R+10 to R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Solid Republican ratings from Cook and others, and Self's prior general election margins exceeding 24 points underpin this positioning, even after mid-decade redistricting added rural eastern counties comprising nearly a quarter of the electorate. Absent polls show no competitive signals, with the race on track as a GOP hold barring unforeseen shifts like scandals or national trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,409End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Keith Self's dominant 80% victory in the March 3 Republican primary over challenger Mark Newgent solidified his path to the November general election against Democrat Evan Hunt, who advanced unopposed, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability for a Republican win in TX-03. The district's R+10 to R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Solid Republican ratings from Cook and others, and Self's prior general election margins exceeding 24 points underpin this positioning, even after mid-decade redistricting added rural eastern counties comprising nearly a quarter of the electorate. Absent polls show no competitive signals, with the race on track as a GOP hold barring unforeseen shifts like scandals or national trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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