Court-ordered redistricting has transformed Utah's 1st congressional district by consolidating Salt Lake County population centers, shifting the seat approximately 40 points leftward based on the 2024 presidential results where Democrats carried it by 24 points. The open seat, vacated by incumbent Blake Moore's move to another district, drew experienced Democratic nominee Ben McAdams, who won the June 2026 primary. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability due to this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the revised boundaries. A Republican upset would require unusually high GOP turnout, a major Democratic candidate scandal, or late shifts in voter registration that overcome the district's new partisan composition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUT-01 House Election Winner
UT-01 House Election Winner
$36,350 Vol.
$36,350 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$36,350 Vol.
$36,350 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,217 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$31,134 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Court-ordered redistricting has transformed Utah's 1st congressional district by consolidating Salt Lake County population centers, shifting the seat approximately 40 points leftward based on the 2024 presidential results where Democrats carried it by 24 points. The open seat, vacated by incumbent Blake Moore's move to another district, drew experienced Democratic nominee Ben McAdams, who won the June 2026 primary. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability due to this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the revised boundaries. A Republican upset would require unusually high GOP turnout, a major Democratic candidate scandal, or late shifts in voter registration that overcome the district's new partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$36,350End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Court-ordered redistricting has transformed Utah's 1st congressional district by consolidating Salt Lake County population centers, shifting the seat approximately 40 points leftward based on the 2024 presidential results where Democrats carried it by 24 points. The open seat, vacated by incumbent Blake Moore's move to another district, drew experienced Democratic nominee Ben McAdams, who won the June 2026 primary. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability due to this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the revised boundaries. A Republican upset would require unusually high GOP turnout, a major Democratic candidate scandal, or late shifts in voter registration that overcome the district's new partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,350End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Court-ordered redistricting has transformed Utah's 1st congressional district by consolidating Salt Lake County population centers, shifting the seat approximately 40 points leftward based on the 2024 presidential results where Democrats carried it by 24 points. The open seat, vacated by incumbent Blake Moore's move to another district, drew experienced Democratic nominee Ben McAdams, who won the June 2026 primary. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability due to this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the revised boundaries. A Republican upset would require unusually high GOP turnout, a major Democratic candidate scandal, or late shifts in voter registration that overcome the district's new partisan composition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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