The strong Republican tilt of Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, reflected in its R+11 partisan voter index and consistent past results, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mike Kelly advanced through the May 19, 2026 Republican primary without notable opposition, while Democrat Justin Wagner emerged from his primary in a district long rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Limited Democratic recruitment and fundraising, combined with the absence of recent polling shifts or national headwinds, sustain the wide gap versus the 16% Democratic share. The general election on November 3 offers little structural path for an upset absent unexpected developments in the coming months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-16 House Election Winner
PA-16 House Election Winner
$17,244 Vol.
$17,244 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
16%
$17,244 Vol.
$17,244 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$8,023 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$9,221 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, reflected in its R+11 partisan voter index and consistent past results, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mike Kelly advanced through the May 19, 2026 Republican primary without notable opposition, while Democrat Justin Wagner emerged from his primary in a district long rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Limited Democratic recruitment and fundraising, combined with the absence of recent polling shifts or national headwinds, sustain the wide gap versus the 16% Democratic share. The general election on November 3 offers little structural path for an upset absent unexpected developments in the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$17,244End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, reflected in its R+11 partisan voter index and consistent past results, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mike Kelly advanced through the May 19, 2026 Republican primary without notable opposition, while Democrat Justin Wagner emerged from his primary in a district long rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Limited Democratic recruitment and fundraising, combined with the absence of recent polling shifts or national headwinds, sustain the wide gap versus the 16% Democratic share. The general election on November 3 offers little structural path for an upset absent unexpected developments in the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,244End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican tilt of Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, reflected in its R+11 partisan voter index and consistent past results, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mike Kelly advanced through the May 19, 2026 Republican primary without notable opposition, while Democrat Justin Wagner emerged from his primary in a district long rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Limited Democratic recruitment and fundraising, combined with the absence of recent polling shifts or national headwinds, sustain the wide gap versus the 16% Democratic share. The general election on November 3 offers little structural path for an upset absent unexpected developments in the coming months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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