Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding position in Michigan's 3rd congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus near 92.5% for the Democratic Party. The district, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding areas in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic in recent cycles, with Scholten securing reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Likely Democratic, citing her established fundraising edge, union endorsements, and the absence of major primary opposition after the August 4 contests. Republican nominee Terri DeBoer faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic performance has improved since 2016. A late national Republican surge, significant local scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-03 House Election Winner
MI-03 House Election Winner
$20,217 Vol.
$20,217 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$20,217 Vol.
$20,217 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$15,515 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$4,702 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding position in Michigan's 3rd congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus near 92.5% for the Democratic Party. The district, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding areas in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic in recent cycles, with Scholten securing reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Likely Democratic, citing her established fundraising edge, union endorsements, and the absence of major primary opposition after the August 4 contests. Republican nominee Terri DeBoer faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic performance has improved since 2016. A late national Republican surge, significant local scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Volume
$20,217End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding position in Michigan's 3rd congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus near 92.5% for the Democratic Party. The district, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding areas in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic in recent cycles, with Scholten securing reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Likely Democratic, citing her established fundraising edge, union endorsements, and the absence of major primary opposition after the August 4 contests. Republican nominee Terri DeBoer faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic performance has improved since 2016. A late national Republican surge, significant local scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,217End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding position in Michigan's 3rd congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus near 92.5% for the Democratic Party. The district, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding areas in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic in recent cycles, with Scholten securing reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Likely Democratic, citing her established fundraising edge, union endorsements, and the absence of major primary opposition after the August 4 contests. Republican nominee Terri DeBoer faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic performance has improved since 2016. A late national Republican surge, significant local scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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