Incumbent Hillary Scholten maintains a dominant position in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat’s D+4 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic trend in recent cycles. Scholten flipped the Grand Rapids-based district in 2022 and expanded her margin in 2024, benefiting from suburban shifts and strong constituent services. She faced no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Terri DeBoer, a longtime local meteorologist, won her August primary but trails substantially in fundraising and faces structural headwinds in a district that has moved leftward. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus on the implied probability of a Democratic hold. A major national Republican wave or unexpected local developments could narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals and historical margins limit realistic paths for an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$26,525 Vol.
$26,525 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Hillary Scholten (D)
95%
Terri DeBoer (R)
5%
$26,525 Vol.
$26,525 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Hillary Scholten (D)
$18,441 Vol.
95%
Terri DeBoer (R)
$8,083 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Hillary Scholten maintains a dominant position in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat’s D+4 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic trend in recent cycles. Scholten flipped the Grand Rapids-based district in 2022 and expanded her margin in 2024, benefiting from suburban shifts and strong constituent services. She faced no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Terri DeBoer, a longtime local meteorologist, won her August primary but trails substantially in fundraising and faces structural headwinds in a district that has moved leftward. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus on the implied probability of a Democratic hold. A major national Republican wave or unexpected local developments could narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals and historical margins limit realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Volume
$26,525End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Hillary Scholten maintains a dominant position in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat’s D+4 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic trend in recent cycles. Scholten flipped the Grand Rapids-based district in 2022 and expanded her margin in 2024, benefiting from suburban shifts and strong constituent services. She faced no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Terri DeBoer, a longtime local meteorologist, won her August primary but trails substantially in fundraising and faces structural headwinds in a district that has moved leftward. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus on the implied probability of a Democratic hold. A major national Republican wave or unexpected local developments could narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals and historical margins limit realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,525End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Hillary Scholten maintains a dominant position in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat’s D+4 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic trend in recent cycles. Scholten flipped the Grand Rapids-based district in 2022 and expanded her margin in 2024, benefiting from suburban shifts and strong constituent services. She faced no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Terri DeBoer, a longtime local meteorologist, won her August primary but trails substantially in fundraising and faces structural headwinds in a district that has moved leftward. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus on the implied probability of a Democratic hold. A major national Republican wave or unexpected local developments could narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals and historical margins limit realistic paths for an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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