The open seat in New York’s 21st Congressional District, created by Elise Stefanik’s decision to pursue the governorship, remains positioned as a Republican hold in a district with a strong Republican partisan voting index. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 67.5 percent implied probability because primary contests between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen, scheduled for June 23, 2026, occur in a solidly conservative area where Republican candidates have historically prevailed by double-digit margins. Democratic primary contenders, including Blake Gendebien, have raised notable funds and drawn some national attention, yet the district’s voting patterns and lack of recent competitive general-election results continue to anchor expectations for a Republican victory in November. Late primary developments or shifts in candidate messaging could still influence final positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$22,759 Vol.
$22,759 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
65%
Democratic Party
33%
$22,759 Vol.
$22,759 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,093 Vol.
65%
Democratic Party
$9,666 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in New York’s 21st Congressional District, created by Elise Stefanik’s decision to pursue the governorship, remains positioned as a Republican hold in a district with a strong Republican partisan voting index. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 67.5 percent implied probability because primary contests between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen, scheduled for June 23, 2026, occur in a solidly conservative area where Republican candidates have historically prevailed by double-digit margins. Democratic primary contenders, including Blake Gendebien, have raised notable funds and drawn some national attention, yet the district’s voting patterns and lack of recent competitive general-election results continue to anchor expectations for a Republican victory in November. Late primary developments or shifts in candidate messaging could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$22,759End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in New York’s 21st Congressional District, created by Elise Stefanik’s decision to pursue the governorship, remains positioned as a Republican hold in a district with a strong Republican partisan voting index. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 67.5 percent implied probability because primary contests between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen, scheduled for June 23, 2026, occur in a solidly conservative area where Republican candidates have historically prevailed by double-digit margins. Democratic primary contenders, including Blake Gendebien, have raised notable funds and drawn some national attention, yet the district’s voting patterns and lack of recent competitive general-election results continue to anchor expectations for a Republican victory in November. Late primary developments or shifts in candidate messaging could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,759End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in New York’s 21st Congressional District, created by Elise Stefanik’s decision to pursue the governorship, remains positioned as a Republican hold in a district with a strong Republican partisan voting index. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 67.5 percent implied probability because primary contests between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen, scheduled for June 23, 2026, occur in a solidly conservative area where Republican candidates have historically prevailed by double-digit margins. Democratic primary contenders, including Blake Gendebien, have raised notable funds and drawn some national attention, yet the district’s voting patterns and lack of recent competitive general-election results continue to anchor expectations for a Republican victory in November. Late primary developments or shifts in candidate messaging could still influence final positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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