**Anthony Constantino holds an 80.5% implied probability in the NY-21 general election market, reflecting the district’s longstanding Republican tilt and his primary victory as the Trump-endorsed nominee.** The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik, has favored GOP candidates for over a decade, with Trump carrying it by roughly 20 points in 2024. Constantino’s self-funded campaign exceeding $10 million, combined with strong primary turnout, underpins trader confidence despite his polarizing profile and limited local establishment support. Blake Gendebien’s 20.5% share aligns with Democratic efforts to capitalize on early polls showing a narrower margin than historical precedent and the Cook Political Report’s recent downgrade of the seat from Solid to Likely Republican. With the November 3 vote weeks away, the pricing incorporates the district’s structural Republican advantage alongside Gendebien’s organized, well-funded challenge.