Anthony Constantino holds the lead in the NY-21 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, where Donald Trump carried the seat by roughly 20 points in 2024 and outgoing Rep. Elise Stefanik won by wide margins. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary with Trump’s endorsement and heavy self-funding, defeating state Assemblymember Robert Smullen. Dairy farmer Blake Gendebien won the Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in this right-leaning North Country district. An August poll showed Constantino ahead by double digits, consistent with trader consensus reflecting the seat’s partisan baseline and Republican primary consolidation ahead of the November 3 general election.