Anthony Constantino secured the Republican nomination for New York’s 21st Congressional District after a decisive primary victory backed by President Trump and substantial self-funding, positioning him as the strong favorite in a district that supported Trump by roughly 20 points in 2024. The open seat, vacated by longtime Rep. Elise Stefanik, remains structurally favorable for Republicans despite a June internal poll commissioned by Democrat Blake Gendebien showing a near-dead heat. Gendebien, a dairy farmer who won his party’s primary, benefits from midterm dynamics that often challenge the president’s party and early messaging on local issues like farming and costs. On September 25, the Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid to Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that assigns Constantino an 80.5% implied probability while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late developments before the November 3 general election.