The open seat in New York’s 21st congressional district, created by Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, sits in a Republican-leaning area rated R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index with a history of double-digit GOP margins. Upcoming June 23 primaries introduce the main near-term variables, as Republican contenders Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen compete amid conflicting internal polls, while multiple Democrats including Blake Gendebien vie for their nomination. These structural advantages and nomination contests underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the Republican Party’s 67% implied probability, while Democratic prospects remain constrained by the district’s partisan composition.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$23,398 Обс.
$23,398 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
68%
Democratic Party
32%
$23,398 Обс.
$23,398 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,604 Обс.
68%
Democratic Party
$9,794 Обс.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in New York’s 21st congressional district, created by Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, sits in a Republican-leaning area rated R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index with a history of double-digit GOP margins. Upcoming June 23 primaries introduce the main near-term variables, as Republican contenders Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen compete amid conflicting internal polls, while multiple Democrats including Blake Gendebien vie for their nomination. These structural advantages and nomination contests underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the Republican Party’s 67% implied probability, while Democratic prospects remain constrained by the district’s partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$23,398Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in New York’s 21st congressional district, created by Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, sits in a Republican-leaning area rated R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index with a history of double-digit GOP margins. Upcoming June 23 primaries introduce the main near-term variables, as Republican contenders Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen compete amid conflicting internal polls, while multiple Democrats including Blake Gendebien vie for their nomination. These structural advantages and nomination contests underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the Republican Party’s 67% implied probability, while Democratic prospects remain constrained by the district’s partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$23,398Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in New York’s 21st congressional district, created by Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, sits in a Republican-leaning area rated R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index with a history of double-digit GOP margins. Upcoming June 23 primaries introduce the main near-term variables, as Republican contenders Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen compete amid conflicting internal polls, while multiple Democrats including Blake Gendebien vie for their nomination. These structural advantages and nomination contests underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the Republican Party’s 67% implied probability, while Democratic prospects remain constrained by the district’s partisan composition.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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