The heavily Democratic composition of Texas’s 18th congressional district, which delivered roughly 77 percent of the vote to the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 96.5 percent. Christian Menefee consolidated support by defeating fellow incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff following redistricting that paired the two and after Menefee’s earlier special-election victory. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield faces structural headwinds in a district with a large Black and Hispanic voting-age population and limited recent GOP infrastructure. A national Republican wave, candidate-specific scandal, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate few near-term catalysts capable of shifting the outcome before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-18 House Election Winner
TX-18 House Election Winner
$12,548 Vol.
$12,548 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$12,548 Vol.
$12,548 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,168 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$379 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of Texas’s 18th congressional district, which delivered roughly 77 percent of the vote to the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 96.5 percent. Christian Menefee consolidated support by defeating fellow incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff following redistricting that paired the two and after Menefee’s earlier special-election victory. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield faces structural headwinds in a district with a large Black and Hispanic voting-age population and limited recent GOP infrastructure. A national Republican wave, candidate-specific scandal, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate few near-term catalysts capable of shifting the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$12,548End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of Texas’s 18th congressional district, which delivered roughly 77 percent of the vote to the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 96.5 percent. Christian Menefee consolidated support by defeating fellow incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff following redistricting that paired the two and after Menefee’s earlier special-election victory. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield faces structural headwinds in a district with a large Black and Hispanic voting-age population and limited recent GOP infrastructure. A national Republican wave, candidate-specific scandal, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate few near-term catalysts capable of shifting the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,548End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of Texas’s 18th congressional district, which delivered roughly 77 percent of the vote to the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 96.5 percent. Christian Menefee consolidated support by defeating fellow incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff following redistricting that paired the two and after Menefee’s earlier special-election victory. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield faces structural headwinds in a district with a large Black and Hispanic voting-age population and limited recent GOP infrastructure. A national Republican wave, candidate-specific scandal, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate few near-term catalysts capable of shifting the outcome before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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