Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race due to the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, along with his established record after two prior victories. The mid-Hudson Valley seat carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index, and Ryan’s substantial fundraising lead—over $3 million in cash on hand versus under $100,000 for Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer—reinforces trader consensus around his reelection prospects. Auringer, a political newcomer and businesswoman, secured the GOP nomination without primary opposition but faces structural barriers in name recognition and resources. Recent polling shows Ryan ahead by double digits. Potential shifts could arise from a strong national Republican environment, late developments on issues such as affordability or immigration, or unusually high turnout among conservative voters in Orange and Dutchess counties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$42,968 Vol.
$42,968 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
7%
$42,968 Vol.
$42,968 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
$33,591 Vol.
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
$9,377 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race due to the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, along with his established record after two prior victories. The mid-Hudson Valley seat carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index, and Ryan’s substantial fundraising lead—over $3 million in cash on hand versus under $100,000 for Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer—reinforces trader consensus around his reelection prospects. Auringer, a political newcomer and businesswoman, secured the GOP nomination without primary opposition but faces structural barriers in name recognition and resources. Recent polling shows Ryan ahead by double digits. Potential shifts could arise from a strong national Republican environment, late developments on issues such as affordability or immigration, or unusually high turnout among conservative voters in Orange and Dutchess counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,968End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race due to the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, along with his established record after two prior victories. The mid-Hudson Valley seat carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index, and Ryan’s substantial fundraising lead—over $3 million in cash on hand versus under $100,000 for Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer—reinforces trader consensus around his reelection prospects. Auringer, a political newcomer and businesswoman, secured the GOP nomination without primary opposition but faces structural barriers in name recognition and resources. Recent polling shows Ryan ahead by double digits. Potential shifts could arise from a strong national Republican environment, late developments on issues such as affordability or immigration, or unusually high turnout among conservative voters in Orange and Dutchess counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,968End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race due to the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, along with his established record after two prior victories. The mid-Hudson Valley seat carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index, and Ryan’s substantial fundraising lead—over $3 million in cash on hand versus under $100,000 for Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer—reinforces trader consensus around his reelection prospects. Auringer, a political newcomer and businesswoman, secured the GOP nomination without primary opposition but faces structural barriers in name recognition and resources. Recent polling shows Ryan ahead by double digits. Potential shifts could arise from a strong national Republican environment, late developments on issues such as affordability or immigration, or unusually high turnout among conservative voters in Orange and Dutchess counties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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