Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan seeks reelection in New York’s 18th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with primaries scheduled for June 23. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2 and favored Kamala Harris by three points in 2024, yet Ryan secured a 14-point margin that year against a Republican opponent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic due to Ryan’s established incumbency advantage and limited Republican recruitment. A recent court ruling confirmed Republican challenger Jackie Auringer’s ballot access, though no broader shifts in national conditions or local dynamics have altered the underlying electoral math. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive threats ahead of the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
51%
共和党
13%
$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$32,013 Vol.
51%
共和党
$1,303 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan seeks reelection in New York’s 18th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with primaries scheduled for June 23. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2 and favored Kamala Harris by three points in 2024, yet Ryan secured a 14-point margin that year against a Republican opponent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic due to Ryan’s established incumbency advantage and limited Republican recruitment. A recent court ruling confirmed Republican challenger Jackie Auringer’s ballot access, though no broader shifts in national conditions or local dynamics have altered the underlying electoral math. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive threats ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$33,316終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan seeks reelection in New York’s 18th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with primaries scheduled for June 23. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2 and favored Kamala Harris by three points in 2024, yet Ryan secured a 14-point margin that year against a Republican opponent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic due to Ryan’s established incumbency advantage and limited Republican recruitment. A recent court ruling confirmed Republican challenger Jackie Auringer’s ballot access, though no broader shifts in national conditions or local dynamics have altered the underlying electoral math. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive threats ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,316終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan seeks reelection in New York’s 18th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with primaries scheduled for June 23. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2 and favored Kamala Harris by three points in 2024, yet Ryan secured a 14-point margin that year against a Republican opponent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic due to Ryan’s established incumbency advantage and limited Republican recruitment. A recent court ruling confirmed Republican challenger Jackie Auringer’s ballot access, though no broader shifts in national conditions or local dynamics have altered the underlying electoral math. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive threats ahead of the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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