Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race as the Democratic incumbent seeking a third term, backed by the district's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Despite Donald Trump's narrow 2024 presidential win there, Ryan benefits from substantial name recognition, a large fundraising advantage exceeding $4 million raised compared to challenger Jacqueline Auringer's roughly $90,000, and consistent polling margins around 10-15 points. Auringer, a 29-year-old businesswoman and political newcomer, has focused attacks on local issues like energy costs and healthcare but faces structural barriers in a district with a D+2 Partisan Voter Index. Late-breaking developments such as national turnout shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$42,968 Vol.
$42,968 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
7%
$42,968 Vol.
$42,968 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
$33,591 Vol.
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
$9,377 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race as the Democratic incumbent seeking a third term, backed by the district's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Despite Donald Trump's narrow 2024 presidential win there, Ryan benefits from substantial name recognition, a large fundraising advantage exceeding $4 million raised compared to challenger Jacqueline Auringer's roughly $90,000, and consistent polling margins around 10-15 points. Auringer, a 29-year-old businesswoman and political newcomer, has focused attacks on local issues like energy costs and healthcare but faces structural barriers in a district with a D+2 Partisan Voter Index. Late-breaking developments such as national turnout shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,968End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race as the Democratic incumbent seeking a third term, backed by the district's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Despite Donald Trump's narrow 2024 presidential win there, Ryan benefits from substantial name recognition, a large fundraising advantage exceeding $4 million raised compared to challenger Jacqueline Auringer's roughly $90,000, and consistent polling margins around 10-15 points. Auringer, a 29-year-old businesswoman and political newcomer, has focused attacks on local issues like energy costs and healthcare but faces structural barriers in a district with a D+2 Partisan Voter Index. Late-breaking developments such as national turnout shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,968End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race as the Democratic incumbent seeking a third term, backed by the district's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Despite Donald Trump's narrow 2024 presidential win there, Ryan benefits from substantial name recognition, a large fundraising advantage exceeding $4 million raised compared to challenger Jacqueline Auringer's roughly $90,000, and consistent polling margins around 10-15 points. Auringer, a 29-year-old businesswoman and political newcomer, has focused attacks on local issues like energy costs and healthcare but faces structural barriers in a district with a D+2 Partisan Voter Index. Late-breaking developments such as national turnout shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions