Tom Sell secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 19th Congressional District after winning the May 2026 primary runoff by nearly 30 points, positioning him as the clear general-election favorite in a district with consistent Republican presidential margins exceeding 46 points. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Jodey Arrington, features a solidly conservative electorate across its 33 counties, including Lubbock and Abilene. Sell’s background in agriculture policy and endorsements from House Republican leadership contrast with Democratic nominee Kyle Rable’s limited fundraising—under $32,000 versus Sell’s more than $2 million—and lower profile. Trader consensus at 99 percent for Sell reflects these structural and resource imbalances, though late developments such as a major scandal or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-19 House Election Winner
TX-19 House Election Winner
$30,238 Vol.
$30,238 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Tom Sell (R)
99%
Kyle Rable (D)
1%
$30,238 Vol.
$30,238 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Tom Sell (R)
$6,433 Vol.
99%
Kyle Rable (D)
$23,805 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom Sell secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 19th Congressional District after winning the May 2026 primary runoff by nearly 30 points, positioning him as the clear general-election favorite in a district with consistent Republican presidential margins exceeding 46 points. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Jodey Arrington, features a solidly conservative electorate across its 33 counties, including Lubbock and Abilene. Sell’s background in agriculture policy and endorsements from House Republican leadership contrast with Democratic nominee Kyle Rable’s limited fundraising—under $32,000 versus Sell’s more than $2 million—and lower profile. Trader consensus at 99 percent for Sell reflects these structural and resource imbalances, though late developments such as a major scandal or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$30,238End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom Sell secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 19th Congressional District after winning the May 2026 primary runoff by nearly 30 points, positioning him as the clear general-election favorite in a district with consistent Republican presidential margins exceeding 46 points. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Jodey Arrington, features a solidly conservative electorate across its 33 counties, including Lubbock and Abilene. Sell’s background in agriculture policy and endorsements from House Republican leadership contrast with Democratic nominee Kyle Rable’s limited fundraising—under $32,000 versus Sell’s more than $2 million—and lower profile. Trader consensus at 99 percent for Sell reflects these structural and resource imbalances, though late developments such as a major scandal or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,238End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Tom Sell secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 19th Congressional District after winning the May 2026 primary runoff by nearly 30 points, positioning him as the clear general-election favorite in a district with consistent Republican presidential margins exceeding 46 points. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Jodey Arrington, features a solidly conservative electorate across its 33 counties, including Lubbock and Abilene. Sell’s background in agriculture policy and endorsements from House Republican leadership contrast with Democratic nominee Kyle Rable’s limited fundraising—under $32,000 versus Sell’s more than $2 million—and lower profile. Trader consensus at 99 percent for Sell reflects these structural and resource imbalances, though late developments such as a major scandal or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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