Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis anchors trader consensus for the NY-11 House seat at 86.5% probability, reflecting the district’s R+10 partisan voting index and Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report. A U.S. Supreme Court stay in early March preserved the current boundaries after lower courts had ordered redistricting over minority vote dilution claims, locking in lines favorable under New York’s mid-decade restrictions. Malliotakis holds a substantial fundraising edge with $2.5 million cash on hand ahead of the June 23 primaries, while Democratic contenders remain fragmented among multiple candidates. The district’s rightward shift among blue-collar voters continues to insulate the seat from statewide Democratic generic ballot leads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-11 House Election Winner
NY-11 House Election Winner
$14,006 Vol.
$14,006 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
14%
$14,006 Vol.
$14,006 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,883 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$6,123 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis anchors trader consensus for the NY-11 House seat at 86.5% probability, reflecting the district’s R+10 partisan voting index and Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report. A U.S. Supreme Court stay in early March preserved the current boundaries after lower courts had ordered redistricting over minority vote dilution claims, locking in lines favorable under New York’s mid-decade restrictions. Malliotakis holds a substantial fundraising edge with $2.5 million cash on hand ahead of the June 23 primaries, while Democratic contenders remain fragmented among multiple candidates. The district’s rightward shift among blue-collar voters continues to insulate the seat from statewide Democratic generic ballot leads.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$14,006End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis anchors trader consensus for the NY-11 House seat at 86.5% probability, reflecting the district’s R+10 partisan voting index and Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report. A U.S. Supreme Court stay in early March preserved the current boundaries after lower courts had ordered redistricting over minority vote dilution claims, locking in lines favorable under New York’s mid-decade restrictions. Malliotakis holds a substantial fundraising edge with $2.5 million cash on hand ahead of the June 23 primaries, while Democratic contenders remain fragmented among multiple candidates. The district’s rightward shift among blue-collar voters continues to insulate the seat from statewide Democratic generic ballot leads.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,006End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis anchors trader consensus for the NY-11 House seat at 86.5% probability, reflecting the district’s R+10 partisan voting index and Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report. A U.S. Supreme Court stay in early March preserved the current boundaries after lower courts had ordered redistricting over minority vote dilution claims, locking in lines favorable under New York’s mid-decade restrictions. Malliotakis holds a substantial fundraising edge with $2.5 million cash on hand ahead of the June 23 primaries, while Democratic contenders remain fragmented among multiple candidates. The district’s rightward shift among blue-collar voters continues to insulate the seat from statewide Democratic generic ballot leads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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