Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in the New York 11th Congressional District race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, her established record since 2021, and unopposed primary victory. The seat, covering Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn, carries a Solid Republican rating from forecasters, reinforced by the U.S. Supreme Court's March 2026 decision preserving existing district lines after a failed redistricting challenge. Democratic nominee Michael DeCillis, a former NYPD officer and 9/11 responder who won his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower fundraising and limited name recognition in a district where Republican candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the incumbent's advantages and absence of major disruptive events. A national Democratic surge, late scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-11 House Election Winner
NY-11 House Election Winner
$26,179 Vol.
$26,179 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
93%
Michael DeCillis (D)
7%
$26,179 Vol.
$26,179 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
$12,886 Vol.
93%
Michael DeCillis (D)
$13,293 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in the New York 11th Congressional District race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, her established record since 2021, and unopposed primary victory. The seat, covering Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn, carries a Solid Republican rating from forecasters, reinforced by the U.S. Supreme Court's March 2026 decision preserving existing district lines after a failed redistricting challenge. Democratic nominee Michael DeCillis, a former NYPD officer and 9/11 responder who won his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower fundraising and limited name recognition in a district where Republican candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the incumbent's advantages and absence of major disruptive events. A national Democratic surge, late scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$26,179End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in the New York 11th Congressional District race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, her established record since 2021, and unopposed primary victory. The seat, covering Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn, carries a Solid Republican rating from forecasters, reinforced by the U.S. Supreme Court's March 2026 decision preserving existing district lines after a failed redistricting challenge. Democratic nominee Michael DeCillis, a former NYPD officer and 9/11 responder who won his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower fundraising and limited name recognition in a district where Republican candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the incumbent's advantages and absence of major disruptive events. A national Democratic surge, late scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,179End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in the New York 11th Congressional District race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, her established record since 2021, and unopposed primary victory. The seat, covering Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn, carries a Solid Republican rating from forecasters, reinforced by the U.S. Supreme Court's March 2026 decision preserving existing district lines after a failed redistricting challenge. Democratic nominee Michael DeCillis, a former NYPD officer and 9/11 responder who won his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower fundraising and limited name recognition in a district where Republican candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the incumbent's advantages and absence of major disruptive events. A national Democratic surge, late scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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