The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+10 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's 57.8% win in 2024, underpins the 92.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Donald Norcross faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the June 2 contest and benefits from labor endorsements, while the Republican nominee enters a seat with limited recent competitiveness. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a national midterm wave, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could narrow the margin, though the district's voter registration and presidential voting patterns limit realistic shifts before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNJ-01 Wahlsieger
$19,401 Vol.
$19,401 Vol.
Demokratische Partei
93%
Republikanische Partei
8%
$19,401 Vol.
$19,401 Vol.
Demokratische Partei
93%
Republikanische Partei
8%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+10 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's 57.8% win in 2024, underpins the 92.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Donald Norcross faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the June 2 contest and benefits from labor endorsements, while the Republican nominee enters a seat with limited recent competitiveness. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a national midterm wave, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could narrow the margin, though the district's voter registration and presidential voting patterns limit realistic shifts before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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