Incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman's December 2025 announcement to run for U.S. Senate opened Wyoming's at-large House seat, drawing a crowded Republican primary field—including Secretary of State Chuck Gray (leading fundraising with $500,000 cash on hand), Senate President Bo Biteman, and former Supt. Jillian Balow—ahead of the May 29 filing deadline and August 18 primary. No Democrats have declared for their primary, reinforcing Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid Wyoming's history of GOP landslides (68-70% margins recently). This imbalance drives 91% trader consensus for a Republican general election win on November 3, though a GOP nominee scandal, surprise high-profile Democratic entrant, or national midterm wave could challenge it.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWY-AL House Election Winner
WY-AL House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,033 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman's December 2025 announcement to run for U.S. Senate opened Wyoming's at-large House seat, drawing a crowded Republican primary field—including Secretary of State Chuck Gray (leading fundraising with $500,000 cash on hand), Senate President Bo Biteman, and former Supt. Jillian Balow—ahead of the May 29 filing deadline and August 18 primary. No Democrats have declared for their primary, reinforcing Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid Wyoming's history of GOP landslides (68-70% margins recently). This imbalance drives 91% trader consensus for a Republican general election win on November 3, though a GOP nominee scandal, surprise high-profile Democratic entrant, or national midterm wave could challenge it.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$4,033End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman's December 2025 announcement to run for U.S. Senate opened Wyoming's at-large House seat, drawing a crowded Republican primary field—including Secretary of State Chuck Gray (leading fundraising with $500,000 cash on hand), Senate President Bo Biteman, and former Supt. Jillian Balow—ahead of the May 29 filing deadline and August 18 primary. No Democrats have declared for their primary, reinforcing Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid Wyoming's history of GOP landslides (68-70% margins recently). This imbalance drives 91% trader consensus for a Republican general election win on November 3, though a GOP nominee scandal, surprise high-profile Democratic entrant, or national midterm wave could challenge it.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,033End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman's December 2025 announcement to run for U.S. Senate opened Wyoming's at-large House seat, drawing a crowded Republican primary field—including Secretary of State Chuck Gray (leading fundraising with $500,000 cash on hand), Senate President Bo Biteman, and former Supt. Jillian Balow—ahead of the May 29 filing deadline and August 18 primary. No Democrats have declared for their primary, reinforcing Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid Wyoming's history of GOP landslides (68-70% margins recently). This imbalance drives 91% trader consensus for a Republican general election win on November 3, though a GOP nominee scandal, surprise high-profile Democratic entrant, or national midterm wave could challenge it.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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