The Democratic Party's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District reflects the seat's entrenched partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+17 to D+25 and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Troy Carter and fellow Democrat Renada Collins dominate candidate filings ahead of the November 3 open primary, while Republican and other challengers lack comparable resources or district alignment. Nonpartisan forecasts from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include a major scandal affecting Democratic candidates, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a significant redistricting change before the December runoff window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLA-02 House Election Winner
LA-02 House Election Winner
$61,950 Vol.
$61,950 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
1%
$61,950 Vol.
$61,950 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$35,428 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$26,522 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District reflects the seat's entrenched partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+17 to D+25 and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Troy Carter and fellow Democrat Renada Collins dominate candidate filings ahead of the November 3 open primary, while Republican and other challengers lack comparable resources or district alignment. Nonpartisan forecasts from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include a major scandal affecting Democratic candidates, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a significant redistricting change before the December runoff window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$61,950End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District reflects the seat's entrenched partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+17 to D+25 and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Troy Carter and fellow Democrat Renada Collins dominate candidate filings ahead of the November 3 open primary, while Republican and other challengers lack comparable resources or district alignment. Nonpartisan forecasts from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include a major scandal affecting Democratic candidates, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a significant redistricting change before the December runoff window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$61,950End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...The Democratic Party's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District reflects the seat's entrenched partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+17 to D+25 and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Troy Carter and fellow Democrat Renada Collins dominate candidate filings ahead of the November 3 open primary, while Republican and other challengers lack comparable resources or district alignment. Nonpartisan forecasts from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include a major scandal affecting Democratic candidates, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a significant redistricting change before the December runoff window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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