Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win re-election in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, reflecting his decisive 2024 victory, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $700,000, and the district's Democratic partisan lean in a suburban central New Jersey seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report. With no public polling yet available, odds align with forecasters' assessments emphasizing incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House incumbents exceeding 90% re-election. Republicans trail at 9%, hampered by an unproven field including sales professional Jason Cullen; June 2 primaries could introduce stronger challengers or national midterm dynamics, though late-breaking scandals or waves remain low-probability disruptors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNJ-03 House Election Winner
NJ-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win re-election in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, reflecting his decisive 2024 victory, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $700,000, and the district's Democratic partisan lean in a suburban central New Jersey seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report. With no public polling yet available, odds align with forecasters' assessments emphasizing incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House incumbents exceeding 90% re-election. Republicans trail at 9%, hampered by an unproven field including sales professional Jason Cullen; June 2 primaries could introduce stronger challengers or national midterm dynamics, though late-breaking scandals or waves remain low-probability disruptors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win re-election in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, reflecting his decisive 2024 victory, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $700,000, and the district's Democratic partisan lean in a suburban central New Jersey seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report. With no public polling yet available, odds align with forecasters' assessments emphasizing incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House incumbents exceeding 90% re-election. Republicans trail at 9%, hampered by an unproven field including sales professional Jason Cullen; June 2 primaries could introduce stronger challengers or national midterm dynamics, though late-breaking scandals or waves remain low-probability disruptors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win re-election in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, reflecting his decisive 2024 victory, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $700,000, and the district's Democratic partisan lean in a suburban central New Jersey seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report. With no public polling yet available, odds align with forecasters' assessments emphasizing incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House incumbents exceeding 90% re-election. Republicans trail at 9%, hampered by an unproven field including sales professional Jason Cullen; June 2 primaries could introduce stronger challengers or national midterm dynamics, though late-breaking scandals or waves remain low-probability disruptors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions