The Makerfield by-election on 18 June features a contest dominated by Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who previously contested the seat. Recent constituency polls show the pair separated by just a few points, establishing a clear two-horse dynamic that places Kenyon as the strong favourite to finish second. Rebecca Shepherd of Restore Britain registers single-digit support in the same surveys, while remaining candidates trail further behind. Scrutiny over Kenyon’s past social media activity has surfaced in the final weeks but has not shifted the underlying race structure reflected in trader positioning. The outcome hinges on whether Burnham’s personal profile sustains Labour’s narrow edge or whether Reform consolidates enough of the anti-incumbent vote to alter finishing order.