Tim Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the NY-26 House race due to the district's strong Democratic tilt in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area and his status as the sitting representative who won reelection with over 65 percent in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges for either candidate ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Dennis Hannon's Republican bid faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have held firm. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Kennedy aligns with these fundamentals, though an upset would require an unforeseen national political shift or late developments capable of overcoming the established margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$42,611 Vol.
$42,611 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Tim Kennedy (D)
96%
Dennis Hannon (R)
4%
$42,611 Vol.
$42,611 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Tim Kennedy (D)
$22,498 Vol.
96%
Dennis Hannon (R)
$20,113 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tim Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the NY-26 House race due to the district's strong Democratic tilt in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area and his status as the sitting representative who won reelection with over 65 percent in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges for either candidate ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Dennis Hannon's Republican bid faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have held firm. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Kennedy aligns with these fundamentals, though an upset would require an unforeseen national political shift or late developments capable of overcoming the established margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$42,611End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tim Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the NY-26 House race due to the district's strong Democratic tilt in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area and his status as the sitting representative who won reelection with over 65 percent in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges for either candidate ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Dennis Hannon's Republican bid faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have held firm. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Kennedy aligns with these fundamentals, though an upset would require an unforeseen national political shift or late developments capable of overcoming the established margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,611End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Tim Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the NY-26 House race due to the district's strong Democratic tilt in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area and his status as the sitting representative who won reelection with over 65 percent in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges for either candidate ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Dennis Hannon's Republican bid faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have held firm. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Kennedy aligns with these fundamentals, though an upset would require an unforeseen national political shift or late developments capable of overcoming the established margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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