Incumbent Tim Kennedy benefits from New York’s 26th Congressional District’s consistent Democratic lean, demonstrated by his 2024 victories exceeding 65 percent in both the special and general elections. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Primaries for both parties were canceled, leaving Kennedy unopposed on the Democratic line and Dennis Hannon as the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Kennedy aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific developments before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$42,611 Vol.
$42,611 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Tim Kennedy (D)
96%
Dennis Hannon (R)
4%
$42,611 Vol.
$42,611 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Tim Kennedy (D)
$22,498 Vol.
96%
Dennis Hannon (R)
$20,113 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Tim Kennedy benefits from New York’s 26th Congressional District’s consistent Democratic lean, demonstrated by his 2024 victories exceeding 65 percent in both the special and general elections. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Primaries for both parties were canceled, leaving Kennedy unopposed on the Democratic line and Dennis Hannon as the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Kennedy aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific developments before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$42,611End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Tim Kennedy benefits from New York’s 26th Congressional District’s consistent Democratic lean, demonstrated by his 2024 victories exceeding 65 percent in both the special and general elections. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Primaries for both parties were canceled, leaving Kennedy unopposed on the Democratic line and Dennis Hannon as the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Kennedy aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific developments before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,611End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Tim Kennedy benefits from New York’s 26th Congressional District’s consistent Democratic lean, demonstrated by his 2024 victories exceeding 65 percent in both the special and general elections. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Primaries for both parties were canceled, leaving Kennedy unopposed on the Democratic line and Dennis Hannon as the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Kennedy aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific developments before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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