Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 13th congressional district after defeating five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 2026 primary, aided by endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and progressive groups. The district, spanning parts of Manhattan and the Bronx, has long favored Democratic candidates by wide margins in general elections, with forecasters rating the seat Safe or Solid Democratic. Jomo Williams advanced as the Republican nominee without primary opposition. Traders price Chevalier at 97.3% because the seat’s partisan lean and her primary performance create a steep path for any Republican challenger. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or health issue affecting the nominee before the November 3 general election.