Kathy Castor’s incumbency and established local profile in Hillsborough County anchor her 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 race, even after redistricting shifted the district toward a modest Republican lean reflected in 2024 presidential results. Mike Beltran, who captured the GOP nomination in August, has adjusted his messaging toward Tampa Bay-specific issues while securing endorsements from national Republican groups, yet the contest remains rated a toss-up or lean by major forecasters. Recent developments include Castor’s announcement of two October debates and Beltran’s push for additional televised forums, alongside Castor’s fundraising lead in cash on hand. Limited polling and the absence of major late-breaking events keep the trader consensus centered on the incumbent’s structural advantages in a closely contested general election on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$46,066 Vol.
$46,066 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
64%
Mike Beltran (R)
36%
$46,066 Vol.
$46,066 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
$23,613 Vol.
64%
Mike Beltran (R)
$22,453 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor’s incumbency and established local profile in Hillsborough County anchor her 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 race, even after redistricting shifted the district toward a modest Republican lean reflected in 2024 presidential results. Mike Beltran, who captured the GOP nomination in August, has adjusted his messaging toward Tampa Bay-specific issues while securing endorsements from national Republican groups, yet the contest remains rated a toss-up or lean by major forecasters. Recent developments include Castor’s announcement of two October debates and Beltran’s push for additional televised forums, alongside Castor’s fundraising lead in cash on hand. Limited polling and the absence of major late-breaking events keep the trader consensus centered on the incumbent’s structural advantages in a closely contested general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$46,066End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor’s incumbency and established local profile in Hillsborough County anchor her 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 race, even after redistricting shifted the district toward a modest Republican lean reflected in 2024 presidential results. Mike Beltran, who captured the GOP nomination in August, has adjusted his messaging toward Tampa Bay-specific issues while securing endorsements from national Republican groups, yet the contest remains rated a toss-up or lean by major forecasters. Recent developments include Castor’s announcement of two October debates and Beltran’s push for additional televised forums, alongside Castor’s fundraising lead in cash on hand. Limited polling and the absence of major late-breaking events keep the trader consensus centered on the incumbent’s structural advantages in a closely contested general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,066End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kathy Castor’s incumbency and established local profile in Hillsborough County anchor her 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 race, even after redistricting shifted the district toward a modest Republican lean reflected in 2024 presidential results. Mike Beltran, who captured the GOP nomination in August, has adjusted his messaging toward Tampa Bay-specific issues while securing endorsements from national Republican groups, yet the contest remains rated a toss-up or lean by major forecasters. Recent developments include Castor’s announcement of two October debates and Beltran’s push for additional televised forums, alongside Castor’s fundraising lead in cash on hand. Limited polling and the absence of major late-breaking events keep the trader consensus centered on the incumbent’s structural advantages in a closely contested general election on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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