Kathy Castor’s incumbency advantage and established local profile in Hillsborough County underpin her 63.5% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran at 36%. The August 18 Republican primary win by the former state representative consolidated the GOP field, but recent July polling showed Castor ahead by eight points in the redrawn district. Mid-September ratings adjustments by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to toss-up status, alongside Beltran’s shift toward localized “Tampa Bay First” messaging, reflect the competitive dynamics created by 2026 redistricting that boosted the area’s Republican presidential lean. Traders appear to weigh Castor’s name recognition and fundraising edge more heavily than the map’s structural tilt in the lead-up to the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$46,066 Vol.
$46,066 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
64%
Mike Beltran (R)
36%
$46,066 Vol.
$46,066 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
$23,613 Vol.
64%
Mike Beltran (R)
$22,453 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor’s incumbency advantage and established local profile in Hillsborough County underpin her 63.5% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran at 36%. The August 18 Republican primary win by the former state representative consolidated the GOP field, but recent July polling showed Castor ahead by eight points in the redrawn district. Mid-September ratings adjustments by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to toss-up status, alongside Beltran’s shift toward localized “Tampa Bay First” messaging, reflect the competitive dynamics created by 2026 redistricting that boosted the area’s Republican presidential lean. Traders appear to weigh Castor’s name recognition and fundraising edge more heavily than the map’s structural tilt in the lead-up to the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$46,066End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor’s incumbency advantage and established local profile in Hillsborough County underpin her 63.5% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran at 36%. The August 18 Republican primary win by the former state representative consolidated the GOP field, but recent July polling showed Castor ahead by eight points in the redrawn district. Mid-September ratings adjustments by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to toss-up status, alongside Beltran’s shift toward localized “Tampa Bay First” messaging, reflect the competitive dynamics created by 2026 redistricting that boosted the area’s Republican presidential lean. Traders appear to weigh Castor’s name recognition and fundraising edge more heavily than the map’s structural tilt in the lead-up to the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,066End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kathy Castor’s incumbency advantage and established local profile in Hillsborough County underpin her 63.5% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran at 36%. The August 18 Republican primary win by the former state representative consolidated the GOP field, but recent July polling showed Castor ahead by eight points in the redrawn district. Mid-September ratings adjustments by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to toss-up status, alongside Beltran’s shift toward localized “Tampa Bay First” messaging, reflect the competitive dynamics created by 2026 redistricting that boosted the area’s Republican presidential lean. Traders appear to weigh Castor’s name recognition and fundraising edge more heavily than the map’s structural tilt in the lead-up to the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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