Kathy Castor’s long incumbency and deep roots in Hillsborough County anchor Democratic trader support in the redrawn FL-14 race, where redistricting shifted the district toward Republicans after Donald Trump carried it by roughly 11 points in 2024. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August primary but trails in the lone public poll from July, with Castor at 46 percent to his 38 percent. Recent developments include Castor’s agreement to two October debates and Beltran’s push for additional televised events, alongside his pivot toward local Tampa Bay issues after emphasizing national themes in the primary. Race raters have moved the contest into toss-up or lean-Democratic territory, reflecting Castor’s name recognition and fundraising edge even as the new map narrows her prior margins. Traders price these structural and campaign factors into the current 66-32 split.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$49,376 Vol.
$49,376 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
66%
Mike Beltran (R)
32%
$49,376 Vol.
$49,376 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
$24,617 Vol.
66%
Mike Beltran (R)
$24,759 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor’s long incumbency and deep roots in Hillsborough County anchor Democratic trader support in the redrawn FL-14 race, where redistricting shifted the district toward Republicans after Donald Trump carried it by roughly 11 points in 2024. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August primary but trails in the lone public poll from July, with Castor at 46 percent to his 38 percent. Recent developments include Castor’s agreement to two October debates and Beltran’s push for additional televised events, alongside his pivot toward local Tampa Bay issues after emphasizing national themes in the primary. Race raters have moved the contest into toss-up or lean-Democratic territory, reflecting Castor’s name recognition and fundraising edge even as the new map narrows her prior margins. Traders price these structural and campaign factors into the current 66-32 split.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$49,376End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor’s long incumbency and deep roots in Hillsborough County anchor Democratic trader support in the redrawn FL-14 race, where redistricting shifted the district toward Republicans after Donald Trump carried it by roughly 11 points in 2024. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August primary but trails in the lone public poll from July, with Castor at 46 percent to his 38 percent. Recent developments include Castor’s agreement to two October debates and Beltran’s push for additional televised events, alongside his pivot toward local Tampa Bay issues after emphasizing national themes in the primary. Race raters have moved the contest into toss-up or lean-Democratic territory, reflecting Castor’s name recognition and fundraising edge even as the new map narrows her prior margins. Traders price these structural and campaign factors into the current 66-32 split.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,376End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Kathy Castor’s long incumbency and deep roots in Hillsborough County anchor Democratic trader support in the redrawn FL-14 race, where redistricting shifted the district toward Republicans after Donald Trump carried it by roughly 11 points in 2024. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August primary but trails in the lone public poll from July, with Castor at 46 percent to his 38 percent. Recent developments include Castor’s agreement to two October debates and Beltran’s push for additional televised events, alongside his pivot toward local Tampa Bay issues after emphasizing national themes in the primary. Race raters have moved the contest into toss-up or lean-Democratic territory, reflecting Castor’s name recognition and fundraising edge even as the new map narrows her prior margins. Traders price these structural and campaign factors into the current 66-32 split.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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