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Politics·France

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

icon for Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee
Politics·France

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

Boris Vallaud 39%

Raphael Glucksmann 36%

Olivier Faure 17%

Carole Delga 5.8%

Polymarket

$16,057 Vol.

Boris Vallaud 39%

Raphael Glucksmann 36%

Olivier Faure 17%

Carole Delga 5.8%

Polymarket

$16,057 Vol.

icon for Boris Vallaud

Boris Vallaud

$1,725 Vol.

39%

icon for Raphael Glucksmann

Raphael Glucksmann

$7,133 Vol.

36%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$823 Vol.

17%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$412 Vol.

6%

icon for Jérôme Guedj

Jérôme Guedj

$338 Vol.

5%

icon for Segolene Royal

Segolene Royal

$395 Vol.

4%

icon for Philippe Brun

Philippe Brun

$832 Vol.

2%

icon for Francois Hollande

Francois Hollande

$3,337 Vol.

2%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$474 Vol.

1%

icon for Karim Bouamrane

Karim Bouamrane

$589 Vol.

1%

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.The Socialist Party's July 2026 decision to hold a closed primary among members and allied socialist groups in October has intensified competition among leading figures, with Boris Vallaud, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Olivier Faure positioned as the main contenders. Internal factional tensions, including Vallaud's challenge to Faure's leadership and debates over strategy toward broader left-wing coordination, sustain the tight trader consensus. Glucksmann's potential participation as an outsider aligned with moderate social democrats adds uncertainty, while lower-polling names like Carole Delga and Jérôme Guedj reflect limited current momentum. Upcoming primary debates, candidate declarations before the autumn vote, and any shifts in socialist voter surveys could widen gaps ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.

If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.

Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$16,057
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.The Socialist Party's July 2026 decision to hold a closed primary among members and allied socialist groups in October has intensified competition among leading figures, with Boris Vallaud, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Olivier Faure positioned as the main contenders. Internal factional tensions, including Vallaud's challenge to Faure's leadership and debates over strategy toward broader left-wing coordination, sustain the tight trader consensus. Glucksmann's potential participation as an outsider aligned with moderate social democrats adds uncertainty, while lower-polling names like Carole Delga and Jérôme Guedj reflect limited current momentum. Upcoming primary debates, candidate declarations before the autumn vote, and any shifts in socialist voter surveys could widen gaps ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.

If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.

Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$16,057
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Boris Vallaud" at 39%, followed by "Raphael Glucksmann" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" has generated $16.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" is "Boris Vallaud" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Raphael Glucksmann" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.